Arsenal v PSG: Opposing the Gunners your smart first-leg route to profit | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Declan Rice performed heroics for Arsenal in the home leg of the last round

Home advantage will not necessarily help Arsenal when they host PSG in their Champions League semi-final first leg on Tuesday night, writes James Eastham...

Arsenal vs PSGTuesday, 20:00 GMT

The View From PSG

PSG go into this game in their worst form for several months. They have won just one of their last four games (W1-D1-L2) in all competitions. Last Friday, they lost a Ligue 1 match for the first time this season, despite fielding a strong side at home to Nice (3-1 defeat).

Converted into a prolific centre-forward, Ousmane Dembele will be a key man for the visitors. But his form has faltered, too: after scoring 26 goals in 23 appearances from mid-December onwards, he has now gone five games without a goal.

Look out for PSG's power, pace, and skill on the wings. Three players - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, and Bradley Barcola - are competing for two starting positions. If two of them do not get you, the other one will (off the bench).

Gunners too short for first leg win

Arsenal are short-priced favourites - and arguably too short - when they host Paris-SG in what promises to be a fantastic Champions League semi-final first leg at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night.

At the time of writing, on Mikel Arteta's players are 23/20 to secure a first-leg lead, while PSG are 12/5, and The Draw is 12/5.

Do the Gunners really deserve to be so short to triumph in front of their own fans? We do not believe so. Favouritism would be fair, and the hosts may well win - but Arsenal's hopes of securing a first-leg advantage are not as strong as the market suggests.

We do not believe that home advantage grants Arsenal a major advantage, or that PSG will enjoy one for the return fixture at Parc des Princes next week.

Both teams can play in different ways - dominate the ball, counter-attack, or a mix of both - and both have shown they can outperform the market on the road this season.

PSG are favourites to make the final, as the odds in the To Qualify market shows. At the time of writing, the Ligue 1 champions are 3/4 to reach the showpiece game in Munich in May 31, while Arsenal are 21/20.

To us, the prices in the To Qualify market look about right. Given that we expect an even contest over the two legs, and that we do not believe that playing at home will confer much advantage, siding with the outsiders this week makes sense.

PSG 0 & + 0.5 Asian Handicap - which would earn you a profit if PSG avoid defeat on Tuesday night - is available on the Exchange at 2.1. On the Sportsbook, PSG Draw No Bet is 7/5. PSG-Draw on the Double Chance market is 4/6.

All three are worth considering. PSG-Draw on the Double Chance market would be our choice.

Doue underrated to find the net

The Anytime Goalscorer market has some interesting prices on PSG's players. Naturally, their top scorer and centre-forward Dembele leads the way - he is 23/10 to find the net - but there are other players more deserving of attention.

An overarching trend to be aware of on PSG is that, in this market, it makes sense to concentrate on their attackers. 71 per cent of PSG's 82 goals in all competitions in 2025 have been scored by players that line-up in their front three. Bigger prices are obviously available on defenders and midfielders, but we do not believe that they necessarily represent value.

Focusing solely on the PSG attackers, our main takeaway is that the prices on PSG's wingers inaccurately reflect the likelihood of them getting on the scoresheet. Kvaratskhelia has scored only four times in 21 appearances in all competitions since joining PSG from Napoli in January. Barcola - prolific earlier in the season - has failed to find the net in his last 10 appearances in all competitions.

In contrast, Doue has scored six goals in his last eight appearances in all competitions, and 11 in his last 16. Yet he is the clear outsider of the three attackers competing for the two wide positions in the starting line-up; Kvaratskhelia is 3/1 in the Anytime Goalscorer market, Barcola is 10/3, and Doue is 9/2.

If you are looking for a pick in this market, in-form Doue would be our suggestion.

Recommended bets

Back PSG And Draw on the Double Chance market @ 4/6

James' 2024-25 Champions League P/L