Revealed: Worrying stat emerges after Leeds United and Burnley FC promotions confirmed | OneFootball

According to statisticians, Leeds United and Burnley have a 60% chance of getting relegated.

Statisticians have warned Leeds United and Burnley that they face a 60% chance of going down from the Premier League next season.

Both the Clarets and the Whites sealed promotion on Monday, as Scott Parker’s side defeated Sheffield United - ensuring Chris Wilder’s men can no longer catch either team in their final two fixtures.

For much of the season, it had looked like a three-horse race, but a dreadful start to April derailed the Blades' hopes, with three successive defeats to sides they’d have fancied their chances against.

That opened the door on Easter Monday for both Leeds and Burnley to clinch a return to the Premier League. In the 3pm kick-off, Daniel Farke’s men ran riot against Stoke City, going into half-time 5–0 up, with four goals from Joel Piroe. Wilfried Gnonto added a sixth after the break, and all eyes turned to Lancashire to see if the Clarets could get the win they needed to send both sides up.

In a tense affair, two goals from Josh Brownhill - either side of a Tom Cannon strike - proved decisive. And by 7:30pm, the two promotion frontrunners were celebrating.

Attention now shifts to the title race, but beyond that, both clubs will be setting their sights on the Premier League, where a worrying pattern of promoted sides struggling to stay up has begun to emerge.

Relegation figures will concern Leeds and Burnley

As alluded to earlier, the i Paper's statisticians believe that Leeds and Burnley have a 60% chance of getting relegated next season amid the recent trend of promoted sides struggling in the top flight.

In 2023–24, we saw Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town all suffer relegation from the Premier League just a year after winning promotion. And it looks like history is set to repeat itself in 2024–25. Leicester City and Southampton have already been relegated, and while Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich Town aren’t mathematically out of it, their survival hopes are hanging by a thread.

What’s particularly worrying is not just that these clubs are going down - but how far off the pace they are. At present, 17th-placed West Ham United sit a full 15 points clear of the Tractor Boys, underlining the gulf in class.

According to The i, prior to the 2023–24 season, newly promoted sides had roughly a 30% chance of relegation, with a wider group of clubs typically in the mix for the drop. But that figure has now ballooned to 60%, thanks in large part to the influx of wealthy owners at established clubs and financial regulations that limit what promoted sides can spend to compete.

What makes this all the more alarming is that, before last season, this had only happened once before - back in 1997–98, when Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace all went straight back down. Now, it looks set to occur in consecutive seasons, and both Leeds and Burnley will be all too aware of the daunting challenge that lies ahead as they prepare for life back in the top flight.

Leeds and Burnley will be looking to buck the Premier League trend

Leeds and Burnley hierarchies will be under no illusion of the difficulties that face them next season, yet they can fight this trend with smart recruitment.

The Whites will be one of the richest clubs to secure promotion in recent seasons with the backing of 49ers Enterprises and any inclusions Farke wants to make should be supported.

Burnley, meanwhile, have the advantage of learning from their mistakes in 2023–24, and a more seasoned approach to recruitment this time around could well strengthen their bid for survival.

However, both clubs will share one pressing concern: their managers. While both Farke and Parker have now guided teams to promotion from the Championship on three occasions, their records in the Premier League leave much to be desired.

If that trend continues into next season, it could spell trouble. Both clubs will need to be shrewd - and possibly ruthless, if they’re to hold their own against the financial muscle and quality of the top flight.