Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at Crystal Palace, Ipswich and Aston Villa | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Betfair Saturday Superboost

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Crystal Palace v Brighton (Saturday, 15:00)

Having won 11 of their previous 14 games across all competitions before their visit to Southampton, it came a surprise to everyone that not only did Crystal Palace not win but they had to find a last minute goal to come away with a draw. This against a Saints side that still have one fewer point than the Derby County team who have the unenviable record of the worst ever Premier League side. Still, it means Palace have only lost four of their last 21 matches and look to be ending the season on a high with an FA Cup Semi-final to look forward to.

Brighton themselves suffered a blip with their 3-0 home defeat to Aston Villa but it's perhaps understandable having lost on penalties to Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup a few days before. They've won six of their last 10 in the Premier League and are another side seemingly looking to end the season well.

Goal wise under Fabian Hürzeler, Brighton have become reliable as they used to be under Roberto de Zerbi and Graham Potter with 70% of their matches seeing Over 2.5 goals winners, including their last seven games. However, under de Zerbi and Potter, punters were forced to be taking increased lines like 2.75 to find competitive odds but here we have another 2.50 line.

Only 41% of Crystal Palace's games have seen three plus goals this season but crucially with their uptick in form after a slow start to the season, six of their last eight at Selhurst Park have delivered winners. Palace themselves have scored two or more goals in six of their last nine to show the quality going forwards that both sides possess.

In the reverse fixture Palace won 3-1 at Brighton in Hürzeler's first taste of the 'M23 derby'.

Ipswich v Wolves (Saturday, 15:00)

I've been banging the drum of backing goals in Wolves matches for a while now given the low lines we keep getting, despite top scorer Matheus Cunha being suspended, and I'm more than happy to do it again here especially as it's been priced up as a 2.25 line game. The Premier League is averaging 2.97 goals-per-game this season, aka a 2.50 line league, hot off the back of 3.28 per-game last season following the increase in injury time, so unless there's something massively untoward, I see no reason why Cunha's absence doesn't make Under 2.50 goals a slight favourite rather than as low as the 4/6 it is. This gives us the opportunity to back Over 2.25 goals, knowing that only zero or one goals will see us completely lose our bet.

Let's remember, that along with Brighton, Wolves' matches have the best Over 2.5 goals strike rate in the league at 70% with 21 of their 30 games seeing three or more goals. This increases to a huge 80% away from home, with 12 of their 15 matches seeing Over 2.5 winners, with only one game seeing fewer than two goals - a match with mitigating circumstances following Bournemouth being reduced to 10 men after only 31 minutes.

Ipswich finally arrested the slide of no wins in 10 with a 2-1 victory at Bournemouth in midweek to show they're still fighting for survival despite being nine points behind this Wolves side. 11 of their last 16 games have seen Over 2.5 goals (69%) as perhaps desperation plays a part in their matches being more open. The reverse fixture saw Ipswich win 2-1 and expect them to be on the offensive from the off.

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 17:30)

Saturday night football sees the cameras at Villa Park for two teams having excellent seasons. Aston Villa are in the Champions League quarter-finals and FA Cup semi-final whilst Nottingham Forest also have a Wembley semi to look forward to and are on course to play Champions League football season with the odds just 1/14 they finish in the top five suggesting a 93% chance. Villa are seventh, just two points behind Newcastle in fifth, with Forest up in third and currently a six point cushion to Manchester City in fourth.

Both sides are in great form with Villa have won nine of their last 13 games across all competitions including six in a row, whilst Forest impressively won 13 of their last 22 matches which doesn't include three penalty shoot-out successes. Confidence is sky high in both camps and I'm hoping for another open game.

Despite Villa's lofty position, they still have a negative goal difference of -1, such is their inability to keep clean sheets, with just five all season and only two at Villa Park. As a result, 67% of their matches have seen Over 2.5 goals, including 13 of their last 19 games (68%). Only 50% of Forest's matches have seen Over 2.5 goals but away from home that increases to 67% including 10 of their last 13 seeing three or more goals and all five in 2025.

In the reverse game Nottingham Forest won 2-1 and in this fixture in February last season, Unai Emery defeated Nuno Espírito Santo 4-2.

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