Supercomputer predicts Champions League winner after dramatic quarter-finals | OneFootball

After two days of comebacks which never quite came to pass, our Champions League semi-finalists are set.

Interestingly, it was the team who made the most noise over staging a potential second leg 'remontada' that looked the least likely to overturn their deficit. Real Madrid fell flat on home soil against a stubborn Arsenal team, and the Gunners have reached the last four for the first time in 16 years.

Mikel Arteta's men are chasing history, and their upcoming tie with Paris Saint-Germain means we're guaranteed to have a potential first-time winner involved in the showpiece event on 26 May.

Three of the league phase's top four remain in the competition, with four different countries represented. A couple of belting semi-finals await, and here's how Opta's supercomputer rates each team's chances of winning the competition with just a couple of hurdles left in their path.

Opta regarded Arsenal as the Champions League favourites after their dismantling of Madrid last week. A mature 2-1 victory in the Spanish capital on Wednesday certainly hasn't hindered their chances, with the supercomputer backing the Gunners to bypass PSG in the semis and beat either Barcelona or Inter in Munich at the end of May.

Arsenal prevailed in 28.7% simulations run by Opta's supercomputer, the most out of the four teams.

Inter may not be quite as imperious as they've previously been under Simone Inzaghi, but Opta is bullish on their chances of reaching the final after they toppled Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. The conclusion of the second leg was frenetic, but the Nerazzurri held on to claim a tense 4-3 aggregate victory over the Germans.

Opta rates Inter's chances of winning their first Champions League title since 2010 at 25.5% - they're the second favourites ahead of the semi-finals.

Inzaghi's men meet Barca in a repeat of the iconic semi-final tie from 15 years ago. While Hansi Flick's Blaugrana are top of La Liga by four points and have lost just once in all competitions in 2025, Opta doesn't regard Inter as a particularly good match-up for the Catalonians.

Barca are the least likely champions, according to the supercomputer, as they prevailed in just 21.8% of Opta's simulations. They clearly didn't like what they saw on Tuesday night, as Borussia Dortmund threatened to overturn a whopping 4-0 deficit from the first leg.

PSG were also handed an almighty scare by Aston Villa in the second leg of their quarter-final tie, but Luis Enrique's side just about weathered the storm after conceding three times in quick succession at the start of the second half. They showed enough mettle to progress and will meet Arsenal again after they lost 2-0 at the Emirates in October.

Les Parisiens have shown this calendar year that they're a much-improved outfit from the start of 2024/25. Still, Opta fancies the Gunners and thus rates PSG's chances of Champions League glory at 24%.