Astana v Chelsea: Back 4/1 and 11/4 shouts that centre around early strike for Nkunku | OneFootball

UEFA Europa Conference League

Nkunku likes to kick off proceedings with a goal

Ste Tudor is backing a routine win for the Blues, and has four best bets including a 4/1 opening goalscorer...

Nkunku to again open scoring

Enzo Maresca and his men will be delighted to get away from title talk for a few days, although high expectations also accompany them on their Conference League adventures. The Blues are 4/5 to win the competition outright, largely due to being the biggest and best team in it.

To date, Chelsea haven't exactly dissuaded us of their top billing, converting every 20 minutes when comfortably seeing off Gent, Panathinaikos, Noah and Heidenheim and goals could be a feature here too, despite Astana having a credible defensive record.

Across their 2023/24 league campaign that concluded last month, the Yellow and Blues kept 10 clean sheets in 24 and conceded more than a single goal on only four occasions.

It was almost enough to take them to an eighth Kazakhstan Premier League title in just 16 years of existence. They missed out by a point.

Still, how can we overlook Chelsea's prolificacy in this tournament, and how can we ignore the significant disparity in quality on display in far-off Almaty this Thursday.

For reasons that will become clear in later sections, the visitor's line-up is fairly easy to predict and the likes of Nkunku, Felix, Guiu and Mudryk - health permitting - could, and should, fill their boots.

Of this quartet look out for Marc Guiu in the shots market. The teenage striker racked up six attempts against Heidenheim, three on target, and he is 13/8 to have 1 or more SOT in each half here.

Naturally though, it's Christopher Nkunku who is the banker, being top scorer in the competition. The striker has broke the deadlock in five of the nine games in which he has scored this season.

Consolation for hosts offers up 11/4

It is not Astana themselves who pose the biggest threat on Thursday but rather circumstances.

The hosts have played only two competitive games since their league season wrapped up last month so should be fresh and at it. Chelsea meanwhile will be less so having travelled 6,000km on an eight-hour flight to conditions expected to be testing, -6 degrees at best.

Should Astana get on the scoresheet look no further than Geoffrey Chinedu who has greatly impressed since joining the club in July. The striker has fired seven in nine in the league, plus five in Conference League qualifying rounds. He is 16/5 to convert.

For all that Chelsea have dazzled under Maresca they do have a tendency to switch off at the back when on top.

Early advantage for Blues

Chelsea's long-haul commitment, combined with a grueling bettering of Spurs at the weekend, means sweeping changes are anticipated, which is fine because Maresca has done precisely this all term.

Indeed, he has forged two distinct teams for domestic and continental fare and both have been highly effective.

On this occasion, only Benoit Badiashile is expected to keep his place with a predicted line-up of - Jorgensen, Disasi, Badiashile, Adarabioyo, Veiga, Dewsury-Hall, Chukwuemeka, Felix, Nkunku, Mudryk, Guiu.

Tyrique George will come in for Mudryk if the winger fails to recover from illness.

This team is more than good enough to confirm a top eight finish in the league phase of this competition with victory in the cold climes of Kazakhstan. Furthermore, they should be fancied to get the job done early.

A notable 32.7% of Chelsea's goals this season across all comps have come inside the opening 25 minutes. From their 23 fixtures, they have scored in this time-frame 14 times, sometimes on multiple occasions.

Busy night for Astana keeper

A shot on target every 12 minutes against Tottenham on Sunday has taken Chelsea to the top of the Premier League table in this regard. Level with Manchester City it amounts to a hefty 92 all told.

And it's a similar tale in Europe, with an average of 10.2 SOT across their league phase outings. Granted, that figure is skewed by a total domination of Noah but it's extremely pertinent, nonetheless.

Recommended bets

Back Nkunku first goalscorer @ 4/1

Back Chelsea to win 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1 @ 11/4

Back Chelsea to have 9 or more shots on target @ 5/6