Birmingham v Newcastle FA Cup Tips: Back Blues for the cupset at 31/10 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Birmingham are unbeaten in 18 matches

They may be fresh off defeating Arsenal but don't get lured in by Newcastle, says Sky Sports' Lewis Jones, who is willing to take a swing on Birmingham City creating a big FA Cup shock...

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Birmingham v NewcastleSaturday 08 February, 17:30Live on BBC

Newcastle are untrustworthy when favourites

There is a stench of a cupset in the air.

Newcastle have a tendency under Eddie Howe to be suited to playing as the underdog and become overawed when expectation is on them to take a game to the opposition.

Despite glory nights where they've got results against Arsenal and Liverpool this season, this Newcastle team have lost to Fulham twice and suffered surprising reverses to Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford. With Howe likely to shuffle his pack for this trip to high-flying Birmingham and the clear lack of depth they possess in their squad, you're a braver punter than me if you're considering backing them at 1.49 on the Betfair Exchange to win this tie in 90 minutes.

That's an obvious bet for me here with Birmingham to qualify standing out at 31/10 - it's a big price.

Distraction of Wembley could affect Toon form

Some may fall into the trap of believing in the momentum factor of Newcastle reaching the EFL Cup final on Wednesday night. Firstly, it's an impossible metric to quantify so should be ignored when making betting decisions and there is evidence to support that making a cup final can actually harm your subsequent league form rather than boost it.

Just looking at the last six non big-six teams to make the EFL Cup final and their results between their win in the second leg and the final does show a correlation of form loss.

In those 24 games, the clubs involved suffered 12 losses, five draws and just seven wins. There is evidence to suggest that making a cup final offers little momentum in the next set of games before the big day. Newcastle are included in that sample of clubs when they made the EFL Cup final in 2023 - they were winless in their next three matches following their semi-final win, drawing to West Ham and Bournemouth and losing to Liverpool.

Howe has ropey FA Cup history

Howe's record in the FA Cup doesn't make for good reading either.

In 16 seasons as a manager he has only made it past the fourth round three times. He managed to make the quarter-finals last season but Newcastle had to overcome Championship outfit Coventry on penalties to get there. In the previous two seasons as Toon boss Howe's team were knocked out in the third round to Sheffield Wednesday and Cambridge United so there is history of upsets in their formbook.

And despite their League One status, Birmingham have shown they are a Championship side - and a rather good one at that - this season.

They are running away with the League One title, averaging 2.33 points per games this season. That is only bettered by Liverpool (2.38) in the top four English divisions. Their midweek EFL Trophy win over Stevenage made it 18 games unbeaten in all competitions - a run stretching back to November 23 when they were humbled by Shrewsbury. In the league they have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 matches, conceding just four goals.

It's a defensive process that deserves the upmost of respect and one Newcastle may find hard to break down.

The omissions of replays also helps strengthen the case of that Birmingham qualify price as home advantage if the tie goes all the way to penalties following a draw is a margin in their favour too. Back them.

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Back Birmingham to qualify @ 31/10