Coppa Italia preview: AC Milan vs. Inter – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·1 April 2025

Coppa Italia preview: AC Milan vs. Inter – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan and Inter will contest their fourth Derby della Madonnina clash of the season on Wednesday night at San Siro, in the third different competition.

Despite having a generally dreadful campaign to this point, the derby has provided some positive moments for Milan as they have won two and drawn one. The victories included a late winner in the first league meeting, and an added-time goal to clinch the Supercoppa Italiana, the club’s 50th trophy.

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Sergio Conceicao knows that he can still leave the club at the end of the season – as he is expected to – with two trophies under his belt in just six months of work. Nonetheless, as he admitted in his press conference on the eve of the game, two games against this Inter side is hard work.

Game date: Wednesday, April 2 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Michael Fabbri (VAR: Abisso)

Team news

Sunday’s defeat against Napoli at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona has effectively ended any hopes of getting a Champions League and possibly even a Europa League spot, given the eight-point gap to fifth and nine-point gap to fourth.

Thus, the Coppa Italia takes on some extra importance because winning it guarantees a place in the UEL. It doesn’t provide the same riches as the top competition, but lifting the domestic cup – and for the first time in over 20 years – would add a sweet note to a bitter season.

As a reminder, Milan got to the final four of the Coppa Italia – something they have been quite good at doing in recent years, with some exceptions – by hammering Sassuolo 6-1 and convincingly beating Roma 3-1.

The opponents

Inter won the league easily last season, and in our preview before the first meeting of the current campaign we highlighted the summer business that they did to try and ensure that the get to 21 Scudetti before Milan get to 20.

The Nerazzurri have had a lot to juggle given that they are participating in this season’s editions of Serie A, the Coppa Italia, the Supercoppa Italiana, the UEFA Champions League and the new, expanded format of the FIFA Club World Cup.

The remarkable news for them is that they are still in each competition (with the Club World Cup coming in the summer). They have been top of the league for the last five rounds having overtaken a faltering Napoli, and will face Bayern in the UCL quarter-finals.

A 2-0 win over Udinese in December is what got them through the last 16 of the Coppa Italia, and that was followed up by a victory by the same scoreline over Lazio in February to set up the meeting with Milan.

The Nerazzurri are unbeaten since losing unluckily to Juventus on 16 February, beating Genoa, Lazio, Feyenoord (twice), Monza, Atalanta and most recently Udinese on an impressive run. Only against Napoli did they drop points, and the 1-1 away draw was far from a bad result.

Photo by Francesco Scaccianoce/Getty Images

It has been a case of ‘don’t fix what isn’t broken’ when it comes to Inzaghi’s system and tactics. Inter continue to heavily rely on the 3-5-2, though this season Marcus Thuram has taken over the bulk of the scoring responsibilities from captain Lautaro Martinez.

In terms of team news, there are a few problems for Inzaghi to deal with. They will be without the suspended Kristjan Asllani as well as the already-injured trio Denzel Dumfries, Piotr Zielinski and Lautaro Martinez.

The latter has been ruled out by the Inter boss after suffering a hamstring strain on international duty, and Mehdi Taremi is now in the treatment room with a groin problem. Thus, Marko Arnautovic or Joaquin Correa should play up front with Marcus Thuram.

The rest of the team is likely to feature Yannn Sommer in goal, Yann Bissek, Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni in defence, Nicola Zalewski and Federico Dimarco at wing-back plus Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in midfield.

UPDATE: Sportitalia are reporting that Thuram is a doubt with a foot problem, but Inzaghi did not mention this in his press conference.

Predicted Inter XI (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni; Zalewski, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Arnautovic.

Head to head

Milan and Inter have faced each other 226 times in their history, with 73 wins for the Rossoneri, 85 for Inter and 68 draws. The recent tale has been quite a rollercoaster though, it must be said.

The blue side of the city went on a run of six derby wins in a row, including one to seal their 20th league title towards the end of last season. Yet, if Conceicao’s men emerge victorious, it will be three wins in four and a four-game unbeaten run for the red side.

Back on February 1, it looked as though Milan were getting a third straight victory against their neighbours after Tijjani Reijnders’ opener, but Stefan De Vrij popped up deep in added time to earn Inzaghi’s side a point they probably deserved in truth.

Key facts and stats

➤ The upcoming first leg will be the 243rd time the two sides have met in all competitions. The overall head-to-head record favours Inter with 91 Nerazzurri victories compared to 81 Rossoneri wins, with 70 draws completing the picture.

➤ In the Coppa Italia, the teams have met 27 times. In Italy’s domestic cup competition, AC Milan have come out on top ten times, while Inter have won on nine occasions. There have been eight draws.

➤ When it comes to semi-final encounters, there’s nothing to separate the sides: both have qualified for the final four times each. The last such tie went the way of the Nerazzurri, who got the better of AC Milan in the last four in 2021/22.

➤ The sides are meeting in a cup semi-final for the fifth time after previously doing so in the Coppa Italia in 1984/85 and 2021/22 and in the UEFA Champions League in 2002/03 and 2022/23.

➤ For the second time in the last three seasons, AC Milan and Inter will meet in three different competitions (Serie A, Supercoppa Italiana and Coppa Italia in 2024/25; Serie A, Supercoppa Italiana and UEFA Champions League in 2022/23).

Ones to watch

For Milan, it feels obvious that the main threats in terms of end product will be Pulisic and Reijnders, as has been the theme of the season. Leao is someone who knows the derby well though and he has hurt the Nerazzurri in the past.

It feels more important, however, that players like Gimenez, Fofana and Theo show up with big performances. Each have been a bit lacking in recent weeks and night like this could light the touch paper, then Walker and Maignan’s experience will be crucial.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Thuram is the de facto leader of the Inter attack and he has scored two goals in four derbies. Only against Torino (four) and Lazio (three) has he bagged more among the teams he’s faced most often, while he has 16 goals in all competitions in 2024-25.

The engine in Inzaghi’s midfield remains Barella and he has the most assists in all competitions this season: eight. Against Milan, the No.23 already has three goal involvements to his name: a goal for Cagliari and two assists in the Nerazzurri shirt.

Finally, the anchor at the back is Bastoni, but he already has six goal involvements to his name this season too. The Italian has previously set up a team-mate to score in the derby: 17 January 2023, when the Nerazzurri ran out 3-0 winners in the Supercoppa Italiana final.

Prediction

While everything points to this being a night for the blue side to celebrate putting one foot in the final, their absentees and also the balancing of other competitions – in addition to the extra motivation for Milan – lead us to believe this could be a tight and cagey affair.

Milan 1-1 Inter