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·20 December 2024
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·20 December 2024
Jean-Philippe Mateta has spearheaded Crystal Palace's recent improvement
Crystal Palace v ArsenalSaturday 21 December, 17:30
After a ding-dong battle on Tuesday night, Crystal Palace went out of the Carabao Cup, beaten 3-2 by Arsenal at the Emirates. Gabriel Jesus was Arsenal's hero with a smartly-taken second-half hat-trick, but the Eagles led for a big chunk of the game thanks to a well-taken fourth-minute goal from the revitalised Jean-Philippe Mateta. When Eddie Nketiah scored against his former club to make it 3-2, it at least made for a nervy finish.
Palace have improved significantly in recent weeks, and the club's decision to stand by an excellent coach in Oliver Glasner has reaped rewards. The South Londoners have lost just one of their last eight matches in the Premier League, and that run includes draws with Manchester City, Aston Villa and Newcastle, as well as wins over Tottenham and Brighton. Palace have scored in seven of those eight games.
Rampaging right-back Daniel Munoz is suspended, while Matheus Franca and Adam Wharton remain on the injured list. Rob Holding won't be facing his former club - he appears to have been frozen out after a disagreement with Glasner.
Arsenal star Bukayo Saka recently gave an interview that saw him admit how painful it has been to miss out on trophies in recent seasons, and there is an irony when you consider that the Gunners are third in the table, despite the implosion of their bete noire Manchester City. Mikel Arteta's team were meant to be the chief beneficiaries of such a collapse, and yet they trail behind city rivals Chelsea and the league leaders Liverpool.
Of course, all is far from lost, but tepid draws with Fulham and Everton in their last two league games have kept Arsenal behind the in the title race. Going into the weekend they are six points behind Liverpool (who have a game in hand) and four adrift of Chelsea. Arsenal are currently 5.3 third-favourites to win the league on the Betfair Exchange.
There has been a lot of talk recently about Arsenal being over-reliant on set plays, something which has boosted Bukayo Saka's assist total to ten already in this Premier League season. Martin Odegaard was missed when he was injured, but the Norwegian has only contributed to three league goals, and it says a lot that in late December one of Arsenal's top scorers is centre-back Gabriel (he has three goals in the league).
Despite his midweek hat-trick, Gabriel Jesus could be benched in favour of Kai Havertz here. Declan Rice hopes to recover from injury in time to start, while Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Oleksandr Zinchenko are all expected to miss the game.
Crystal Palace have made big strides in the last few weeks, and on a Saturday night with the Selhurst Park crowd in full voice I think they can give Arsenal a real test here. Despite not quite being at their best they pushed the Gunners hard on Tuesday night, and I think they'll at least find the net here.
I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Both Teams To Score and Crystal Palace +2 on the Handicap, which gives us a combined price of 2.12. Palace have scored in nine of their last ten games, while Arsenal have managed a clean sheet in just one of their last nine away matches, and that was at Preston North End in the League Cup.
It's also worth noting that Palace are rarely thrashed under Glasner. They have lost by two goals or more in just three of their last 31 competitive matches.
In my preview of Brighton v Crystal Palace last weekend, I drew attention to how many fouls Jefferson Lerma has been drawing, and he was fouled twice in a feisty game. The Colombian midfield battler has now been fouled in seven of his eight Premier League starts this term, and I'm happy to back him to be fouled at least once here.
I'll then boost the price to 2.12 on the Bet Builder by backing the Palace keeper (almost certainly Dean Henderson) to make three or more saves. Henderson has been superb for the Eagles this season, and he made six saves against the Gunners in midweek. He has made three or more saves in 11 of his 20 appearances for club and country this term.