How possession became a dangerous game in the Premier League | OneFootball

Possession is defined as “having, owning or controlling” and perhaps that last word best sums up the philosophy in football: if you have possession, you have control. “Maybe one day they will change the rules,” Pep Guardiola once said with a smile. “But I think to score a goal you need the ball.”

Yet in the Premier League this season there is growing evidence that the teams who really have control are the ones without the ball. They are the ones lulling their opponents into a false sense of security, who can pickpocket at any moment, who can turn a tackle on the halfway line into a shot on target in seconds.

Forest are third in the league and yet rank bottom for possession with 40 per cent; somehow, Bournemouth seem to dominate most games with only 47 per cent. Then there is Southampton, who have only nine points but average more than 50 per cent of the ball, albeit largely because Russell Martin asked Championship players to play like 1970s Brazil. Tottenham average 57 per cent of possession and have the same points as Everton, who average only 41 per cent.

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Points vs possession: They usually go hand in hand in the Premier League – but not this season (The Independent)

Right now, possession doesn’t necessarily mean control. Pressing is more drilled and systemised than ever before, causing record numbers of costly mistakes. Premier League football is now riddled with them – there were 329 errors leading to a shot on goal last season; that figure is already 482 this term and on course to almost double the previous tally.

Opta statistics show that “high turnovers” (sequences starting less than 40 metres from goal) are up and “fast breaks” (counterattacks starting inside the defensive half) are at an all-time high in the Premier League. Such is their potency that away teams are flourishing, to the extent that home advantage has been almost wiped out.

There is no single tactic that low-possession teams use, no one strategy that has taken over the league. Forest lure teams towards their own box and defend it with their life – Nuno Espirito Santo’s team rank first for clearances and second for tackles in their defensive third. Then they launch rapid attacks into space, like the one which skewered Tottenham in December when Morgan Gibbs-White surged across the halfway line with the ball at his feet. In three more touches, they had scored.

Crystal Palace press high under Oliver Glasner, while Bournemouth hunt in organised packs like a military operation. They lay a sophisticated web of traps designed to force a bad pass, often from the least capable player. Bournemouth have earned 40 errors from opponents this season, by far the most of any side in the league.

All this is a natural evolutionary response to the desire for possession that has gripped football for 15 years, since Guardiola’s mesmerising Barcelona team changed the game. “Football evolves very, very quickly,” Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola told The Independent in January. “What we were talking about 10 years ago is nowadays completely different… even four years.”

Guardiola’s City are the poster boys for possession football’s struggles. They have lost nine league games this season, including defeats by both Forest and Bournemouth. Guardiola can and does point to the injury to Ballon d’Or winner Rodri as a cause, while this ageing City team miss Julian Alvarez more than they care to admit. But at the same time, opponents are crafting better plans to beat them.

“More teams use man-marking on our goal kicks, they are more aggressive,” Guardiola noted earlier this season. “Before they were more cautious. Now teams are so brave.”

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Pep Guardiola and his players have found this season tough without Rodri in midfield (Action Images/Reuters)

He admitted the game is adapting and evolving away from his ideology, becoming more direct as teams sacrifice control for incision. “Today, modern football is the way that Bournemouth play, that Newcastle play, Brighton play. Modern football is not so positional,” Guardiola said, referring to the highly structured Juego de Posicion (positional play) with which City have had so much success.

None of this is definitive. A drop in points for possession-hungry teams in the Premier League does not mean possession football is broken. In Germany, Italy, France and Spain, the current league leaders are also the possession leaders (Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, PSG and Barcelona). Yet right now, there is real momentum with those Premier League teams who spend more time hunting than passing.

Perhaps it is just a phase. Guardiola has insisted he will not abandon his principles and he may well reignite City next season. Ange Postecoglou may improve Spurs if he can keep key players fit. In football’s natural evolutionary cycle, Forest’s tactics will be counteracted. But the winds of change are undeniably blowing through the Premier League. Rarely has it been so dangerous to have the ball.