La Liga Tips: Back improved Valencia at 3/1 to draw first blood at Real Madrid | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Real Madrid have had two sloppy home performances within the last week

Jamie Kemp returns to preview three fixtures across MD30 in La Liga, including a tip for Carlos Corberan's Valencia to take advantage of Real Madrid's inconsistent displays...

Betfair Saturday Superboost

James Tarkowski may have escaped a red card in the Merseyside derby but he hasn't escaped the eyes of the Betfair traders who have noticed that the Everton defender has committed five fouls in his last three games.

Against Arsenal on Saturday Tarkowski is 2/5 to commit at least one foul, but the generous traders at Betfair have super-boosted that price to 1/1. To take advantage just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip

Real Madrid v Valencia - Sat, 15:15

Real Madrid are still on for a treble this season. They're well in the title race in La Liga, about to take on Arsenal in the Champions League quarter-finals, and already have a date set with Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final.

The possibilities are still huge, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they managed it. At the same time, though, their performance levels still continue to underwhelm. There's absolutely no doubt that Barcelona are the form team in Spain, whereas Carlo Ancelotti's side still look like a team who struggling to balance themselves between attack and defence. Throw in a packed schedule and it's unlikely that they're going to fix all of that dramatically before the end of the season; they probably are what they are now.

Despite winning their last two games, we've seen a lot of the downsides of what that is in the last week. Real Madrid conceded six times across home games against Leganes and Real Sociedad; two teams who haven't been able to buy a goal for most of the season. Los Blancos have only really started to compete and look like the high-octane machine that they can be once they've been forced into action by conceding.

Of course, they're still the experts of bouncing off the canvas and somehow into the ascendency. That doesn't look like changing any time soon. But for this weekend's game against Valencia, I think we'll see some of that sluggishness persist against a team who've been plenty competitive since Carlos Corberan took over. In a league table based on 2025 results only, Valencia would be fifth in La Liga.

Though their joy might be short lived on the day, I'm going to go with the visitors to open the scoring at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid have fallen behind in three of their last four games across all competitions, while they conceded twice in the first half to a low-scoring Leganes side in the other. As for Valencia, they've scored first in 11 of their 15 matches under Corberan.

Las Palmas v Real Sociedad - Sun, 13:00

It's time for Las Palmas to start winning, and they know it. For a club that are traditionally known for a possession-based style of play and expressive tendencies, what we're seeing now under Diego Martinez is a whole lot of pragmatism. All that matters is staying in La Liga, however that is achieved.

Against Celta Vigo last time out, we saw plenty of direct football and a 4-4-2 featuring Fabio Silva and Oli McBurnie up top. Between the pair, they won all nine of the aerial duels they contested, while both looked dangerous from a style of play that not many Las Palmas fans are used to watching. Do they like it? Probably not. Was it effective and will Diego Martinez stick with it? Very probably, yes.

At this stage, every home game for the islanders has to be one they're going out to win. With the obvious challenges that having to fly to the mainland for every game, their away record in La Liga has not been very good for a long period of time. Their 'salvation' - if it is to happen - will have to be done on home soil with the support of their fans pushing them on.

One player who deserves special praise within their otherwise difficult season is the aforementioned Fabio Silva. The Portuguese has netted eight goals in one of the worst-performing attacks in La Liga this term, and had one chalked off by VAR against Celta Vigo last time out, in a characteristically bright performance.

On home soil, against a Real Sociedad side who've conceded in each of their last six away games in La Liga, he'll be my pick to get on the scoresheet anytime here. Las Palmas need three points, their fans will do their part, and Silva is the man they'll look to.

Villarreal v Athletic Bilbao - Sun, 20:00

Sunday night's clash at La Ceramica is a big one in terms of Champions League qualification, with fifth-place Villarreal welcoming fourth-place Athletic to town.

Though fifth place will very likely be an extra Champions League spot in La Liga this term, the problem for both is that Real Betis have been on an absolute tear of late and have worked their way right into the conversation. Indeed, Villarreal come into this one level on points with sixth-place Betis.

That means the home side have a bit more onus on them to come out and attack this one, whereas Athletic would probably be pretty pleased to take a point back to the Basque Country. They have a six-point advantage over Villarreal coming into the game, and have a big Europa League first leg against Rangers coming up shortly after.

Even if it does turn out to be a game of attack versus defence, with Athletic happy to play on the counter, the visitors will be confident in taking a result that way. Their performance on the defensive side has been spectacular this season, ranking first in La Liga for xG conceded (26) and second for goals conceded (24), marginally behind Atletico Madrid (23).

Overall, I think this one will end up in a stalemate, with Athletic holding strong against Villarreal's efforts to push the game forward, backed by the home crowd. It's also worth nothing that five of the last seven La Liga meetings between Marcelino and Ernesto Valverde have ended in draws.

Meanwhile, with Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta - the senior figure in Athletic's midfield - set to miss out on this game through injury, it's likely the door will open for Benat Prados to get the nod in his place. The youngster plays a very aggressive game, and with plenty on the line here, I'll add him to commit 2+ fouls during the match.

He's been booked more often than any other Athletic player in La Liga this season (6), despite only starting 16 of their 29 games so far.

Recommended bets