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·3 December 2024
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·3 December 2024
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last nine at home under Chris Davies
Huddersfield might just finding their feet finally with back-to-back wins and while the odds-on price for a home win in the match odds is to be expected, but I fancy to score against Wigan and score well.
They've scored two goals or more in their last six of their last seven games and with Wigan going through a patchy run of form, backing the -2 Alternative Handicap pick at 6/1 is a punt worth taking.
Huddersfield are unbeaten in seven league games (W5 D2), last going longer without defeat in March 2022 (run of 17) and they've only conceded eight goals at home thus far.
Wigan's passing by a thousand cuts style might suit Huddersfield, who are a danger at set-pieces and should be able to keep quiet a Latics attack that have found the net just eight times away.
KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan have won both of their last two league games, this after only winning one of their previous nine in League One beforehand (D5 L3).
Birmingham helped us out big style with their 1-2 FA Cup win on Saturday as part of the winning 14/1 treble and we go in again on Blues with goals.
I envisaged a shorter price for the Over 2.5 Goals and the 3/4 looks too appealing to baulk at.
Their stats are impressive in League One - and it's now 2.43 points per game at St Andrews as an average and two per game on the road couple with four wins from five at St Andrews.
Stockport County have won each of their last three league games by an aggregate score of 9-0, this after only winning two of their previous 11 in League One beforehand (D6 L3). Louie Barry's prolific run of 14 goals in 18 games keeps fans of backing him as anytime scorer happy and he's been reportedly linked with a move a Middlesbrough. Indeed, speculation is suggesting his loan spell from Aston Villa could be ended in January.
Barry and Jay Stansfield were both rested at the weekend in the FA Cup and with forwards like those two with gold dust in their boots, the Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS bets look a sound policy.
KEY OPTA STAT: Birmingham City have won four of their last five league games against Stockport County (L1), netting 2+ goals in each of those victories, though this is the first EFL meeting between the two sides since December 2001.
We're going big on Tuesday and Wednesday with our 48/1 treble and goals play a big part again with the Posh, who when on song can thump anyone for a few. Cambridge fans will be aware of this with the recent 6-1 drubbing at the hands of their rivals.
Posh have hit 21 at home this term, the most in the division, so their position in 13th is a poor one considering their output. They now have alternated between defeat (3) and victory (2) in their last five league games, including that 1-2 to Reading last time out.
Their inconsistencies are costing them - but were on song again at the weekend when they produced a 4-3 win over Notts County in a thriller.
Peterborough's pace is too hot to handle sometimes and it was another bonanza on the shot count at the weekend, and the stats are promising here as they have won each of their last three league games against Burton Albion, as many victories as across their prior nine meetings with the Brewers in the EFL combined (W3 D3 L3).
Go for goals, simple.
KEY OPTA STAT: Burton Albion have eight points in 16 league games this season (W1 D5 L10). Only one of the last 14 third-tier sides to have eight or fewer (assuming 3 pts/win) points from their opening 16 matches of a campaign have avoided relegation, with Bournemouth doing so in 1994-95.
MK Dons are on a five-game winning run in League Two, last winning six in a row in the EFL in August 2015 and should be able to navigate this game with success and the 6/4 home win is not a bad price.
Chesterfield have won four on the road and are only two points and two places behind Tuesday's opponent so will be worthy in the game - especially as they are the leading scorers in division away from Saltergate with a whopping 19 goals. Although 10 of those were in two games, which slightly tempers a view on a win for the Spirerites, but they should be good for a goal.
After their 1-0 win over Barrow, Chesterfield are looking for back-to-back League Two victories for the first time since January 2018, so we've got that in our favour with the Dons, who are clearly in far better shape since the new manager Scott Lindsay called for them to be more aggressive.
KEY OPTA STAT: This will be the first meeting between MK Dons and Chesterfield in the Football League since January 2017 when the pair played out a goalless draw.
Salford have won four and lost four on terra firma this season - but a price of 8/13 in the 90 mins market? No thank you. The Red Devils have alternated between winning (3) and losing (3) their last six home league games, losing 0-1 to Carlisle last time out, so they are the depressing opposite of a team with consistency.
Harrogate Town, a team I very rarely punt on at all, have won back-to-back league games (both 2-1), this after losing three in a row beforehand. Those successes were against Gillingham and Chesterfield, and those two are bigger scalps than Salford would be.
Town boss Simon Weaver liked the way his side battled in the recent Gills win in tough conditions by saying: "It was a typical Harrogate performance of old, showing real battling qualities. I'm really proud for the last couple of weeks."
They are limited, but they play to their strengths and it was no surprise they scored from a set-piece in that Gills match.
Weaver got his tactics spot on too in the Chesterfield win - playing a 4-2-3-1 out of possession with a change to a 4-4-2 to combat a back three. They played with great intensity in that match, and if Weaver can galvanise the same sort of effort against Salford, we can back them at 1/1 in the Double Chance market - and Salford are 1/7 in that!
KEY OPTA STAT: After winning four of their first five Football League games against Harrogate Town (D1), Salford City are since winless across their last three matches against the Yorkshire side (D2 L1).
Bradford's home defence is well ordered and with just six conceded, they are up there with some of the meanest defences in the division.
Barrow's last victory in the league was a long time ago - back on the 5th October, and they barely created a shot in anger in their recent 1-0 loss at Chesterfield. They had just 33% possession in the game, 222 accurate passes and one shot on target and no side has fewer away points in League Two this season than Barrow (7), who have lost four of their last five away league outings (D1).
That makes the Bantams an interesting price as on the six conceded they should be odds-on, but their overall form is not so hot with as they last win a League Two match in mid-October with the 2-1 home win. Indeed, that month they also beat Newport 3-1 and a return to that sort of level can give us a profit.
Andy Cook has 11 goals in 22 this term and the odd goal might be good enough to nick this.
2024-2025: +3.00pts *Advised to 0.5pt staked unless stated otherwise