Opta Predicts Ipswich v Man City: Back Delap goal in 40/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Super Sunday's feature game this week comes from Portman Road, and it promises to be an intriguing one regardless of the final score.

While there is clearly work to do for Ipswich Town and Manchester City between now and the end of the season, there is a renewed sense of purpose about both going into this one.

Let's have a look at some of the data to suggest where we can pick up some betting angles.

Don't discount Ipswich

We'll kick things off by looking at the 1/3 favourites Manchester City who, despite looking like they have moved beyond the worst of their mid-season dip in form, still exhibit red flags when it comes to betting.

City have won three and drawn two of their last five matches in all competitions, having won just one of their previous 13 in a run that included nine defeats and even led to whispers that Pep Guardiola could be under pressure. For context, the last time they had a run of nine defeats in 12 matches, which is what City's run stood at prior to drawing 1-1 with Everton on Boxing Day, was January 1954.

That run has completely undermined their season, derailing any ambitions of winning a fifth straight Premier League title. The Opta supercomputer now pins City's likeliest finishing position as third, giving them just a 0.21% chance of winning the title and they are 28/1 on Betfair Sportsbook.

Even though results have begun to turn in the opposite direction, there are caveats to City's form. Victories in their last five matches have come against a Leicester City side in the midst of their current six-game losing streak, a West Ham team who sacked their manager on the back of their 4-1 reverse at the Etihad and League Two Salford City in the FA Cup.

The most recent game in that run came as City drew 2-2 at Brentford on Wednesday, despite having led 2-0 with just nine minutes left to play. That was the eighth time this season in all competitions that they have led a game and not won it, while Guardiola's side have now lost eight points from the 75th minute onwards in the league - more than any other team.

Overall, they have dropped 14 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, already the most they have given up from ahead in a single campaign since 2008-09.

With that in mind, Manchester City/draw in the half-time/full-time market is one to keep an eye on at 17/1.

There is an argument to suggest that this is one of the weakest iterations of City under Guardiola and that is clear than in their away form. Despite an uptick in results, City have managed just one win in their last 10 in all competitions on the road.

What we can glean from that is, despite having the objectively better squad, City are best avoided in the win-draw-win market. For Ipswich, meanwhile, there is an opportunity to get something from the game.

For much of the season, Kieran McKenna's side had looked just as out of their depth as other recent Premier League newbies with only one win in their opening 15 matches. But a recent tactical tweak to 5-4-1 has brought much-needed solidity to the team and a small sample size of results.

The move came after Ipswich's 4-0 defeat away to Newcastle and they have since won one and drawn another of their last four. The victory came in impressive fashion against Chelsea at Portman Road in late December, while they were also a stoppage-time penalty away from beating Fulham at Craven Cottage after that.

Kieran McKenna's side to find the net

The confidence in Ipswich to get something from this game is, at least in part, rooted in the expectation that they will score at least one. They have scored twice in three of their last six league games, including at home to Chelsea in their last match of 2024.

As a result, odds of 5/2 available for over 1.5 home goals look generous and even more so when you consider that Manchester City have kept just three clean sheets on the road all season. In the league, meanwhile, Guardiola's side have stopped the opposition scoring twice in their last 12 games.

While Manchester City's defensive issues have been numerous over the course of the season, it is worth pointing out that neither Ederson nor Stefan Ortega are performing as well as in 2023-24.

Ederson and Ortega have respective save percentages of 59.57% - the third-worst of any goalkeeper with 10 league appearances or more - and 70.59%. That is a drop of at least three per cent from last season and Ortega's goals prevented figure, while still positive, has also dipped by 0.8 to 1.3 this term.

But one thing Guardiola's side do have going for them is their ability to score and, with 38 league goals, they are the fifth-highest scorers in the division. They have found the back of the net in nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions, while BTTS - available at 6/10 - has been a winner in six of their last seven league games and also landed in the reverse fixture.

Delap can continue good form

Liam Delap has scored eight goals in the Premier League for Ipswich, which equates to 40% of his team's total. He also comes into this game with two goals in his last three top-flight appearances and is his side's designated penalty taker.

Delap's league goals have come from an xG of just 6.19, putting him 17th for xG overperformance in the Premier League - only Mateo Kovacic (overperformance of 1.88) is higher in either squad.

The 21-year-old also has a shot-to-goal conversion rate of 22.85%, which puts him within one percentage point of Alexander Isak, Jhon Duran and Mohamed Salah. At 11/4, he is worth considering as an anytime goalscorer.

For the away side, Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku both look good shouts, depending on who starts, at 6/4 and 11/5 respectively.

Ipswich rank equal-third this season for errors leading to goals (eight). Five of those came directly from goalkeeper Arijanet Muric - more than any other player in the division - while his replacement Christian Walton had a poor outing against Brighton.

Many of the goals Ipswich have conceded this season have been soft, benefiting opposing attackers. The pressing and ability on the ball of City's wide attackers could be enough to force another mistake, while Foden has scored three of his four league goals in his last two appearances.