Premier League predictions – gameweek 17: Will Tottenham end Arne Slot’s unbeaten away run? | OneFootball

The 2024-25 Premier League season continues as we enter the festive period with gameweek 17, which has implications for both ends of the table.

This weekend’s matches are spread across two days, beginning with Aston Villa hosting the struggling champions, Manchester City. The action wraps up with an exciting fixture between Tottenham and league leaders Liverpool, who are looking to maintain their distance from Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea.

We’ve looked at all 10 matches from gameweek 17 and given our predicted scores.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Aston Villa won this exact fixture 1-0 last season, but they haven’t recorded consecutive home league victories against Manchester City since April 1993. However, they may feel optimistic as City have lost five of their last seven Premier League matches (with one win and one draw), which is as many losses as they had in their previous 67 games combined (51 wins and 11 draws).

The last time City lost more matches in a single league season was in 2020-21, when they lost six times. Unai Emery’s side should be cautious, though, as a wounded champion can be dangerous. City have had the highest number of shots in England’s top division this season (282), but their shot conversion rate is just 9.9%, their lowest in a single season since 2006-07 when it was 6.4%.

Recent history indicates that one team is more likely to win this match, as Brentford remains unbeaten in their last four Premier League encounters with Nottingham Forest, tallying two wins and two draws. Brentford have also secured victories in both home games against Nottingham Forest in the league.

Since their return to the Premier League in 2022, Nottingham Forest have struggled away from home, winning only one of their 16 league matches against London teams (with four draws and 11 losses). Their sole victory came against Chelsea with a score of 1-0 in September 2023.

On the other hand, Brentford have faced challenges recently; since defeating Manchester City on the final day of the 2022-23 season, they have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League games against teams that were in the top four at the time, managing just one draw. This includes all four home matches during that span.

Also, expect that both defences will be busy. There have been a total of 40 goals scored in Brentford’s eight home Premier League games this season, with Brentford scoring 26 and conceding 14. This averages to five goals per game, the highest goals-per-game rate for any venue in a single Premier League campaign in the competition’s history.

Ipswich vs Newcastle

This is the first league meeting between Ipswich and Newcastle since April 2017 in the Championship, where Ipswich secured a 3-1 victory at Portman Road. In England’s top division, Newcastle have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League matches against promoted teams (W13 D8), winning their last four consecutive games against such sides. The last time they won more consecutive games against promoted teams was between October 2013 and November 2014, when they achieved seven victories in a row.

It’s important to note that both of Ipswich’s Premier League wins this season have occurred away from home, while they remain winless in their last eight matches at Portman Road this season (D4 L4). Historically, only two sides have failed to win any of their first eight home games in a Premier League campaign and managed to avoid relegation: Middlesbrough in 2000-01 (first 8) and Brighton in 2020-21 (first 10).

West Ham vs Brighton

Momentum is gradually returning for West Ham, who have earned 10 points in their last five home Premier League matches (three wins, one draw, one loss). This is the same number of points they accumulated in their previous 11 games at the London Stadium (2 wins, four draws, five losses).

Brighton have struggled against teams in the bottom half of the table, winning only one of their seven encounters (four draws, two losses). They must remain vigilant because all five of West Ham’s recent Premier League goals have come from set pieces: two from corners, one from a direct free kick, one from a free kick, and one penalty.

This season, only Everton (43% – 6 out of 14 goals) scored a lower proportion of their goals from open play compared to West Ham (57% – 12 out of 21 goals).

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Crystal Palace will seek immediate revenge after being eliminated from the EFL Cup by Arsenal midweek. A victory in this match would be significant as it will mean back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since a three-match winning streak in May.

On the other hand, Arsenal are unbeaten in all nine of their Premier League London derby matches in 2024 (with seven wins and two draws). The last team to go unbeaten in such matches over a full calendar year was Chelsea in 2005 (with nine wins and one draw), while Arsenal last achieved this feat in 2004 (with seven wins and three draws).

This match might also turn into a non-open play scoring affair, as Arsenal have scored more set-piece goals than any other team in the Premier League this season, with a total of nine (excluding penalties). Meanwhile, 35% of Crystal Palace’s 17 Premier League goals this season have come from set pieces (again, excluding penalties), with only Everton (57%) having a higher percentage of goals from set pieces.

Everton vs Chelsea

This upcoming match will feature teams positioned 16th and 2nd in the Premier League table. Despite Chelsea’s current form, their recent history with Everton has not been particularly favourable. The Toffees have won five of their last six home games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with the Blues only managing one victory during that stretch. This is the same number of wins Everton achieved in their previous 17 encounters at Goodison Park, which included four draws and eight losses.

However, Chelsea did secure a comprehensive 6-0 victory in their last Premier League meeting with Everton. They haven’t beaten the Toffees in consecutive matches since a streak of three victories between November 2016 and August 2017. On the positive side, Chelsea has been strong on the road this season, leading the Premier League with six away wins, 19 away points, and 23 away goals.

Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea will face a revitalized Everton side that struggled at the beginning of the season, losing their first two home games and conceding three goals in each. Since those early losses, Everton has remained unbeaten in their last five home matches, achieving two wins and three draws, while keeping three clean sheets and conceding only twice.

Fulham vs Southampton

Regardless of the outcome of this game, Southampton will find themselves at the bottom of the Premier League table at Christmas for the first time in their history. If they lose, their total of five points will be the joint second lowest recorded by any team at Christmas in Premier League history, tied with Sunderland in the 2005-06 season; only Sheffield United in 2020-21 had fewer points (2) at this time.

Furthermore, no team has earned fewer points away from home than Southampton this season, with only one point accrued on the road. In fact, the Saints are winless in their last 15 away matches in the Premier League, with three draws and 12 losses.

Even with new management in place, it’s likely that Southampton will concede. Fulham, who did not score in their opening Premier League match this season, have since found the back of the net in each of their last 15 games. They currently hold the longest active scoring streak in the league.

Leicester City vs Wolves

Wolves lost 2-1 to Ipswich in their last Premier League match. They haven’t lost consecutive matches against promoted teams since a three-game stretch in the 1983-84 season, during which they lost twice to QPR and once to Leicester. With nine points and 40 goals conceded, their performance after 16 matches is the worst since the 1983-84 season, when they had just seven points and conceded 40 goals.

That season marked the beginning of a troubling period, leading to three consecutive relegations to the fourth tier.  This match could also turn out to be a low-scoring affair, as the six Premier League meetings between Leicester and Wolves at the King Power Stadium have resulted in only seven goals. In contrast, the six encounters between the teams at Molineux have produced 21 goals.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

If Manchester United fail to win this game, it will mark the first time they have found themselves in the bottom half of the table at Christmas since the 1989-90 season, when they were in 12th place. Ruben Amorim’s men have been put on notice, as Manchester City has had more shots in the Premier League this season (282) than Bournemouth (270).

In their last match against West Ham, Bournemouth attempted 29 shots, their second-highest total in a Premier League game, following the 32 shots they took against Sheffield United in March 2024. However, the Red Devils do have the in-form Amad Diallo, who has either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last five Premier League starts, contributing one goal and five assists, including the winning goal against Manchester City in their most recent match.

Prediction: Man United 2-2 Bournemouth (10/1 with BetMGM)

Tottenham vs Liverpool

Tottenham won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, but they have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against teams that started the day at the top of the table. The only exceptions were away matches against Manchester City, where they drew 2-2 in August 2019 and lost 3-2 in February 2022. Tottenham have also lost all five of their home games during this run.

On the other hand, Arne Slot’s team is unbeaten away from home this season, with five wins and two draws. They will need to be alert from the start, as Spurs have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of games than any other team in the Premier League this season, with nine goals, five of which came in their last two matches.

If Liverpool wins this game, they will top the Premier League table at Christmas for the first time since the 2020-21 season. However, the Reds have only won the title in one of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they were at the top during Christmas, achieving this in the 2019-20 season.