Saturday League One and League Two Tips: Hard to split title contenders in 11/1 and 18/1 accas | OneFootball

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League One

Leg 1: Lincoln City v Charlton Athletic, Saturday 12:30: Back Lincoln and Under 2.5 Goals @ 16/5

It's not quite falling for Lincoln at the moment and they are certainly better than their current position in ninth as I expect them to be pushing for a playoff spot and with Charlton at Sincil Bank this weekend, this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

The Imps were beaten 2-1 by Rotherham in midweek in a game on stats they deserved to take something from the game - they won the accurate passes battle, the big chances missed and created battles and 61% possession.

Rotherham won ugly but I don't envisage a Charlton ugly win at the moment and they've lost five on the road in eight games and have recorded a low xG output this term of just 1.27 on the road. They have also failed to win any of their last seven away league games against Lincoln City (D3 L4) since a 3-2 win in February 1958.

Neither side exactly scream goals with Lincoln's two forwards holding just four between them so it's no surprise to see the Under 2.5 Goals at 13/20 for this. I think we can use that bet with a home win here as Charlton will face plenty of aerial balls and as Lincoln do go long and they like to hit those diagonals.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have lost three of their last four league games (W1), as many defeats as in their previous nine such games (W2 D4).

Leg 2: Burton Albion v Wrexham, Saturday 15:00: Back Wrexham to win @ 20/23

Quite how Burton won at Peterborough on Wednesday will remain a mystery - although in truth that looked a pretty dreadful game and they nicked it in the second-half 0-1 as Posh switched off and the keeper was certainly to blame.

Burton have just 1.02xG at home and have won once, and Wrexham do not look a bad price at all here at 20/23 and considering they are just two points behind Wycombe at the top, this is the sort of game I expect them to grind out.

Grinding is very much the word for the Dragons away from home; as they've won just twice on the road and scored just six, which is miles away from their impressive run at the Racecourse.

This should be a low scorer as six of Wrexham's matches so far away have hit the Under 2.5 Goals target and it's tempting to include that in the multiple, but the straight win on Phil Parkinson's side will do as Burton have lost 14 home league games throughout 2024 (W3 D3), the joint-most of any side in the Football League alongside Carlisle United.

KEY OPTA STAT: This will be just the third competitive meeting between Burton Albion and Wrexham with the Welsh side winning 2-0 during an FA Cup first round tie in 1978 and the Brewers winning 3-2 in the FL Trophy last season.

Leyton Orient have failed to win any of their last four away league games (D1 L3), failing to score in each of their last three. Not since January 2023 have the London side failed to score in four consecutive away games, so don't look an obvious candidate for a win on Saturday.

However, Wigan's lack of any end product in the final third could lead to a low-scoring game here and it's hard to split the pair who are in 17th and 20th respectively.

Wigan failed to score Huddersfield in Tuesday despite the lions' share of possession while Orient created a paltry 0.21xG recently in a 0-0 against Stevenage and have one of the poorest xG numbers in the division away from home at just 0.90.

They've scored just five away from east London this term and Wigan have conceded five, so while the draw is a possible, I will play safe and keep Orient onside with the double chance.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan have lost two of their last three home league games (W1), one more defeat than in their previous 12 such games (W6 D5 L1).

League Two

Leg 1: Port Vale v Wycombe Wanderers, Saturday 12:30: Back The Draw @ 9/4

Top meets second in League Two on Saturday with an early kick-off and Port Vale put their title credentials on the line against a bang in-form opponent in Wycombe who have a most impressive goal difference of +14.

Wycombe's defence on the road is the best in the division with just five conceded and they won a thriller against Notts County in midweek 3-2 with a late winner from the gem of a player Nathan Lowe - his 12th of the season on loan. Walsall away are unbeaten across their last five league games (W3 D2), not enjoying a longer run since a streak of seven matches ending in October 2020 (7), so they are most certainly title contenders themselves.

My angle here is with Darren Moore, who in big games can be slightly pragmatic (as was often the case with Sheffield Wednesday) and with three draws at Vale Park, I am finding it hard to split the pair and Moore's side struggled to beat Crewe in a 1-1 on Tuesday, but they are unbeaten across their last six home league games (W4 D2), their longest such unbeaten run on home soil since April 2022 (9).

KEY OPTA STAT: Port Vale have failed to win any of their last six league games against Walsall (D1 L5), losing each of their last four in succession whilst conceding ten goals in the process.

Leg 2: Swindon Town v Fleetwood Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Fleetwood @ 13/10

This is turning into a disastrous season for Swindon who are in real danger of losing their league status and are now bottom in League Two with just 13 points and even the charms of Ian Holloway are failing.

Holloway, so often the joker in the pack post-match was scathing in his assessment of their 4-0 loss at Colchester in midweek as the game was over in the first-half. The local newspaper said they had never seen a game with one side that were so utterly dominant. Col U ran all over Swindon and Holloway called it unacceptable, and with just one home win all season, it is impossible to even consider putting them up as a bet.

Fleetwood are down in 14th but have been slightly better on the road, and while the Double Chance was under consideration, I don't like the 1/3 price for that bet so it's a straight away win.

Swindon are open at the back and Holloway has adopted quite an aggressive style with three number nines, which means Fleetwood might get a chance or two here, which suits our bet as the Cod Army have 14 away goals this term - only Notts County and Doncaster have scored more.

Fleetwood have lost just one of their last five away league games (W3 D1), scoring 12 goals in total across those matches and that sways me.

KEY OPTA STAT: Swindon have failed to win any of their last five home league games (D2 L3) and could go six without victory at the County Ground for the first time since January 2021.

Leg 3: Barrow v MK Dons, Saturday 15:00: Back MK Dons @ 13/8

I was at the MK Stadium on Tuesday to see the Dons trounce Chesterfield, although I was still looking at my phone as the hosts scored after just 12 seconds. A plan apparently manager Scott Lindsey has had for two years - and that set the tone for a dominant performance helped by Paul Cook's side going to 10-men in the first-half. It was a bit of non-event.

Lindsey is in bullish mood and he wants the title, and it's the first time this season the Dons have been in the top three.

Barrow have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five home league games, last enduring a longer run in the EFL which ended in October 2023 (six matches) and the Dons are good enough to create chances from midfield as I was mighty impressed with Newcastle loan midfielder Joe White - he has a wonderful left-foot and great balance and his passing should create a chance or two for either Alex Gilbey or Hogan.

MK Dons have won each of their last three away league games, scoring 3+ goals in each. They haven't won four away matches in succession since March 2022 but Lindsey has turned them around fairly quickly and are well up to justifying their price for Saturday.

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