Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Fiorentina – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

In partnership with

SempreMilan

·4 April 2025

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Fiorentina – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan return to Serie A action at San Siro on Saturday night after their midweek Coppa Italia clash as they welcome Fiorentina.

Milan come into the game having drawn 1-1 against Inter in the first leg of their cup semi-final, and at present that is their most realistic route into a European competition for next season. However, they must also keep plugging away in the league too.

OneFootball Videos

The Rossoneri currently sit in ninth place in the table, nine points away from fourth place and with nine defeats in Serie A. Simply put, it has been an unacceptable campaign and the team have the obligation to finish strongly.

Game date: Saturday, April 5 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: San Siro Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi (VAR: Paterna)

Team news

As mentioned, the midweek game means that Milan will come into this perhaps feeling a bit more fatigued than their visitors. However, there were some positive signs in that game after the defeat to Napoli at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona a few days prior.

Sergio Conceicao seemed to really like what he saw from his side in the game against the Nerazzurri, praising the intelligence with which they played and the way that they were compact and organised when under pressure.

Now the challenge is to follow it up with a similarly positive performance and to get an even better result, against a side that at present have a much bigger hope of getting into at least the Europa League positions.

The good news from the derby was that Malick Thiaw recovered from a stomach bug that kept him out vs. Napoli and was able to start. There were also no further injury worries from the derby, certainly a welcome boost.

That means the only injury absentees are Ruben Loftus-Cheek – who needed emergency surgery on his appendix – and Emerson Royal. It is believed that the midfielder is around 30 days from returning, and the full-back 20. Alex Jimenez will also miss out through suspension.

In defence, there is only one change expected in central defender, with Matteo Gabbia set to lose his starting place to Fikayo Tomori. So, this leaves Mike Maignan, Kyle Walker, Malick Thiaw and Theo Hernandez all in the same positions.

Youssouf Fofana’s position will be retained in midfield, though his partner is currently uncertain. Tijjani Reijnders is expected to start, but he missed training earlier, which would see Yunus Musah come into the starting lineup.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Ahead of them, Christian Pulisic will start centrally once again, and on the right, Samuel Chukwueze will be given a rare opportunity to start, whilst on the left, Rafael Leao is expected.

Tammy Abraham, after his goal in midweek, is also expected to retain his place, and rightly so.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Walker, Tomori, Thiaw, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders (Musah); Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

We outlined everything that happened with Fiorentina coming into the 2024-25 season in our preview for the reverse fixture. Essentially, the big news was that Vincenzo Italiano left for Bologna (where he is doing a great job and is being linked with Milan), while Raffaele Palladino came in.

It has been a very strange season for Fiorentina, who began with one win in six which actually had Palladino under some pressure. Then, from early October to early December, they won eight games in a row including a 6-0 win at Lecce and a 5-1 drubbing of Roma at home. They also beat Milan in that stretch.

The highest that they ever got was fourth despite that run, with a six-game winless streak allowing, before three more wins and three more losses. You can see from that alone the kind of inconsistency they have.

It is perhaps best embodied by the fact they hosted title-challengers Inter on February 6 (a rearranged game) and beat them 3-0, before playing them at San Siro four days later and losing 2-1.

La Viola finished third in the Conference League table with four wins from their six games, and they are into the quarter-finals against Celje after beating Panathinaikos 5-4 on aggregate in the last 16.

Robin Gosens missed Fiorentina’s last game against Atalanta – a 1-0 win for them – but is expected to play at San Siro, a stadium that he knows well given that he played for Inter. La Viola will again be without Andrea Colpani, though there is a clean bill of health aside from that.

After that win, there are not many changes expected from Palladino, especially in defence after they kept a clean sheet. So, David De Gea will be protected by Pongrancic, Mari and the captain, Ranieri.

A bank of five will sit ahead of them, with Dodo and Parisi on the flanks. Danilo Cataldi will sit at the base of the midfield, and on either side of him should be Mandragora and Fagioli.

Photo by Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images

Leading the line, Palladino will look to Gudmundsson and Moise Kean as normal, with the latter in scintillating form at present.

Predicted Fiorentina XI (3-5-1-1): De Gea; Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri; Dodo, Mandragora, Cataldi, Fagioli, Parisi; Gudmundsson, Kean.

Head to head

There are only six teams that Milan have played more competitive games against in their 125-year history than Fiorentina. In the 182 meetings across all competitions, the record reads 81 wins, 48 draws and 53 defeats, therefore a win percentage of 44.5%.

Last season, the Rossoneri did the double over the team from Florence. The home game was 1-0 in November, with a Theo Hernandez penalty deciding it, then Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Rafael Leao scored in a 2-1 win at the Franchi.

However, Milan were beaten in the game earlier this season in what became known as the game of penalty mutiny. Yacine Adli scored against his parent club, Pulisic equalised and Albert Gudmundsson won it with 17 minutes left.

Key facts and stats

➤After a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture on October 6th, Fiorentina could win both of their Serie A seasonal matches against Milan for the first time since 2000-01.

➤ Milan and Fiorentina have only drawn one of their last 14 league encounters (1-1 on February 22nd, 2020 at Franchi), along with eight wins for the Rossoneri and five for the Viola in the period.

➤ Milan have won each of their last four league matches at Meazza against Fiorentina; the last time they won 5+ successive Serie A home games against the Viola was between 1948 and 1955 (eight in that case).

➤ Fiorentina will face Milan with more points in Serie A table at the start of the matchday for the first time since December 30th, 2017 (1-1 draw with Hakan Çalhanoglu’s and Giovanni Simeone’s goals); overall, the Viola have avoided defeat in four (W3 D1) of their six meetings with the Rossoneri in the top-flight when ahead in the table (W3 D1).

➤ Milan have recorded four defeats in a run of six Serie A games (W2) under a single manager for the first time since August-September 2019, under Marco Giampaolo.

➤ Fiorentina have earned 51 points in Serie A this season and should they win the Viola could gain 54 points in their first 31 top-flight seasonal games for the second time in the last 15 years, after 2015-16: 56 in that case when they ended in 5th place.

Ones to watch

Samuel Chukwueze’s performance is one that Milan will need to watch with intrigue, considering opportunities have been hard to come by in recent months for him. So, if he is to continue at the club next year, a big game is needed, though, this also remains the case if the club were to get a decent sale price.

Fikayo Tomori, if he starts, also needs a huge game. Largely for a lot of the same reasons, but also for himself. In Italy, it is arguable that his stock has never been lower, and with Sergio Conceicao and Paulo Fonseca steering clear of him, he must prove he is still a top-class player.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Very little needs to be said about Moise Kean at the moment. The Italian is in the form of his career, and he looks so comfortable in this Fiorentina set-up – something which has been difficult to find in recent years. If Milan keep him quiet, then they have a good chance.

Finally, Danilo Cataldi’s performance could be decisive in this game. Operating at the base of the Viola’s midfield, he can dictate the game if given too much respect, which the Rossoneri cannot afford.

Prediction

In midweek, Milan proved, again, that they are their own worst enemies, and if they can show a similar performance here against Fiorentina, then they should be on to a winner. Fiorentina must be respected, but the race for Europe means too much, and a win here is more than necessary.

AC Milan 2-1 Fiorentina