Tottenham in ‘fantastic position’, Arsenal ‘scope’, Chelsea 'fog’: What to expect in January transfer window | OneFootball

The lowdown on what promises to be an intriguing month for Premier League clubs

The January transfer window is open and it promises to be an intriguing month.

Here, with the help of football finance expert Kieran Maguire, Standard Sport look at what January might look like and which clubs might be the most active.

Will this January window be busy?

Last year was an exceptionally quiet window for Premier League clubs, with several of them wary about breaching the league’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

Spending in January 2023 totalled £815m, but it fell to just £100m a year later as clubs tightened their belts.

But Premier League sides are not feeling the pinch as much this year and spending could ramp up if someone kickstarts it.

“I don’t think there as many clubs in a precarious position,” says Maguire. “I think clubs are, in the main, slightly better off.

“I think it needs somebody to set it in motion and then there can quite often be a ripple effect. Who that club is going to be, is difficult to identify.

“Tottenham can spend money, but you are never quite sure. They tend to be followers rather than leaders.

“Spurs are in a fantastic position. Their wages as a proportion of revenue is lower than anybody else.

Ange Postecoglou has called for new signings at Tottenham

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“Manchester City have got a lot of money to spend, so if they sign a couple of players [that could start a ripple effect].

“If somebody decides that they are going to sign one of their summer targets in January, then that could accelerate things. I think it will be a wait-and-see window."

Why could Manchester City be the biggest spenders?

City’s poor start to the season has led to reports that they are ready to invest heavily this month.

The club are in a strong position when it comes to PSR having sold a number of homegrown players over the past few years, including the likes of Cole Palmer and Liam Dealp.

“From a PSR point of view, City can spend as much money as they want,” says Maguire. “It’s a case of signing the right players.

“City have made sustainable profits in the last couple of years. An awful lot of players have gone.

“They are generating more revenue than any other club in the Premier League.

“There are, of course, sceptics about some of that revenue, especially in terms of commercial income - but they (City) will say people want to be associated with success and look at our trophy cabinet.”

And what about Arsenal?

Arsenal had a quiet window last January, with the club one of those who were close to the limit of PSR rules.

They are in a stronger position this year, though, and will be tempted to enter the market after Bukayo Saka suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out until at least March.

“The good thing for Arsenal is that the huge losses they had in 2020-21, which I know was a Covid year, have now dropped out of the equation,” says Maguire.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are weighing up whether to enter the market after losing Bukayo Saka to a hamstring injury

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“Looking at the numbers I have got in front of me, they have got some scope - but not a lot. Don’t expect them to spend £200m in the window.

“Could they make a signature signing? If you sign a player on a five-and-a-half-year deal for £50m, you have got an amortisation cost of £5m until June 30. That’s peanuts, really. So, I don’t see them having a problem.”

Could Chelsea bolster their title charge?

Chelsea emerged as surprise title contenders before their record dip in form.

They could look to add to their squad in January for the second half of the season, but it is hard to know how much they can spend.

“Chelsea is surrounded in fog,” he says. “They are brilliant at player sales - and they don’t get enough credit for that.

Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea have suffered a drop in form which has shown the squad still needs strengthening in key areas

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“I think I estimated over the last decade they generated five times as much from player sales as Manchester United, and twice as much as Liverpool and Manchester City.

“How much have they made from the real estate sales? How much have they made from the women’s team sale? It’s impossible to identify what they have been up to.”

And what about Manchester United?

Ruben Amorim has declared Manchester United are in a relegation fight and so they could do with some reinforcements this month.

Amorim wants to stamp his own style of play on United and to do that he will need to start refreshing the squad, but reports suggest he will be unable to bring in the new signings he wants this month unless United offload some players.

“From a PSR point of view, they weren’t in a bad position to begin with, so they’ve got scope to do more than people give them credit for,” says Maguire.

“They have been spending £200m a year for the last few years and nobody has blinked, because you get inoculated to what is big spending.”