Champions League race: Which team has the best run-in? | OneFootball

The race for Champions League football is the narrative that will define the run-in, with the title race and relegation almost finalised.

Liverpool are guaranteed a place in next season’s competition with the champions-elect only one win from the title. Arsenal look well placed to join them, but the battle for the three remaining spots is tantalisingly tight.

Just three points separate third from seventh in the Premier League, in what looks to be a five-team race for three Champions League places. Ahead of a huge clash between top-five rivals Manchester City and Aston Villa tonight, we’ve looked at which team has the best run-in.

All teams have played 33 games at the time of writing.

Nottingham Forest

Nuno Espirito Santo’s stock is at an all-time high having led Nottingham Forest within touching distance of the Champions League. Forest finished 17th last season and were among the pre-season favourites for the drop but have exceeded all expectations as the season’s surprise package. After a mini-wobble of back-to-back defeats, Forest bounced back with an important three points at Spurs on Monday night. Each of the club’s next four games are against teams in the bottom half, ahead of what could be a winner-takes-all showdown against Chelsea on the final day.

Forest have the best run-in in terms of the average position of remaining opponents.

Newcastle United

Newcastle looked to be the form team in the Champions League chase until the Magpies’ momentum was emphatically halted at the weekend. A 4-1 defeat at Aston Villa tightened up the chasing pack and ended a six-game winning run in all competitions.

Newcastle remain well placed, though face two of the current top six before the end of the campaign. Alexander Isak will be crucial to their chances with the Swedish striker reaching 21 goals for the season. Only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (27) has netted more.

Manchester City

Manchester City have steadied the ship since a nightmare winter run that saw the Citizens win once in nine league games. City are five unbeaten in the Premier League, while it’s also three clean sheets in their last four games. The January signing of Omar Marmoush has been important, with the Egyptian scoring six goals in 11 league games. With Erling Haaland not expected back until mid-May at the earliest, the onus is on Marmoush to fire their charge.

City face Aston Villa in a crucial clash tonight and can climb to third with a win. However, defeat would see Pep Guardiola’s side drop out of the Champions League places. There’s little room for error.

Chelsea

Chelsea are clinging on to their Champions League hopes but face the most difficult run-in of the competing sides. The average position of Chelsea’s final five opponents is seventh, a run that includes facing runaway league leaders Liverpool and away trips to top-five rivals Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest. With a much-improved Everton and underperforming Manchester United side also still to come, Chelsea are up against it.

Enzo Maresca will hope his inconsistent side can find some stability in their performances, or the big-spending Blues will face a third straight season out of the Champions League.

Chelsea have the toughest run-in in terms of average position of remaining opponents.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa are the furthest back in this five-team race but momentum is with Unai Emery’s team. The Villans have won 10 of their last 11 games in all competitions and thrashed Newcastle 4-1 in the Premier League at the weekend. Having had a taste of Champions League football this season, Villa are determined to return.

The club’s January recruitment has added badly needed firepower and depth, with Marco Asensio, Marcus Rashford and Donyell Malen all contributing impressively to the cause. Villa head to Manchester City this evening and know a win will take them, temporarily at least, into fourth. Their inferior goal difference and tricky run-in is a concern, but Villa are the form team in this race.

Read – Five things we learned from the Premier League weekend

See more – Premier League Awards: Trent rises, Neto’s netbuster, fuming Fullkrug

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