Serie A preview: Udinese vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·10 avril 2025

Serie A preview: Udinese vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan’s 2024-25 Serie A campaign is drawing to a close, and they have a tricky fixture against Udinese at the Stadio Friuli in round 32.

There is certainly an undeniable feeling of going through the motions regarding Milan’s league season, given that the team are in ninth place and nine points away from the Champions League places. At present, they won’t even get a European spot at all.

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Sergio Conceicao’s own fate seems to be marked as virtually every major source is in agreement that he will leave the Rossoneri, with another revolution plotted. However, in his pre-match press conference he spoke of a good week of work at Milanello and a job to do.

Game date: Friday, April 11 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: Stadio Friuli Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi (VAR: Marini)

Team news

Milan come into the game having won just two of their last seven games in the league, which has seen the momentum from a four-wins-in-six run earlier in the year completely disappear. As a result, ninth place has been consolidated and even Fiorentina in eighth are four points away.

Thus, the Coppa Italia remains the Rossoneri’s best chance of getting into Europe given that if they lift the trophy they will get a Europa League spot. Even in that case though a semi-final second leg against a rampant Inter awaits, with Bologna likely to be the opponents in the final.

The most recent game against Fiorentina was probably Conceicao’s tenure summarised in 90 minutes. La Viola went 2-0 up inside 10 minutes thanks to some comical ‘defending’, but then Tammy Abraham and Luka Jovic scored off the bench to earn a draw, though no winner was found.

The injury absentees for that game were Ruben Loftus-Cheek – who needed emergency surgery on his appendix before the Napoli match – and Emerson Royal. It is believed that the midfielder is around three weeks from returning, and the full-back a bit less.

The opponents

The 2023-24 season was a strange one for Udinese. They looked like being relegated for large stretches given that they won just one game from the start of the season to December 30th (no prizes for guessing who it was against).

They somehow ended up surviving, and during our preview ahead of the game at San Siro back in October we went over the summer transfer business they did to try and make 2024-25 a more comfortable campaign.

Kosta Runjaić deserves credit for the job that he has done, given that the Friulian side are currently in 11th place on 40 points from 31 games. They have won 11 games, which is more than any other team in the bottom half of the table, and they are only eight points behind Milan.

They had a brilliant February with wins over Venezia, Empoli, Lecce and Parma plus a draw against Napoli. However, they are winless in four and have lost their last three games against Verona, Inter and Genoa, scoring just once in the process.

Nonetheless, it has been a job convincingly done in terms of securing top-flight status for another season, and there have certainly been some bright spots in terms of individuals who have performed well. More to come on those.

In terms of selection news, Runjaić has a real problem in the forward department because Keinan Davis, Alexis Sanchez and Florian Thauvin are all expected to miss out due to injuries. Iker Bravo or the young Simone Pafundi are the contenders to play as the second striker.

Left-back Jordan Zemura, goalkeeper Razvan Sava and defender Isaak Toure will also miss out. The Udinese boss is expected to stick with a 4-4-2 system, with Arthur Atta and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp the wide man trying to get service into the dangerous Lorenzo Lucca.

Predicted Udinese XI (4-4-2): Okoye; Ehizibue, Bijol, Solet, Kamara; Atta, Lovric, Karlstrom, Ekkelenkamp; Bravo, Lucca.

Head to head

AC Milan have played Udinese 106 times across their history in competitive games, with a record of 46 wins, 37 draws and 23 defeats.

The game at the Friuli last season was chaotic to say the least. Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Lazar Samardzic netted to make it 1-1 going into the break, then Florian Thauvin put the home side ahead before Luka Jovic and Noah Okafor struck late to earn Milan a big win.

During that fixture, the players went off the field as Mike Maignan complained about repeated racist abuse from a few Udinese fans, so when Okafor’s shot hit the back of the net deep into added time it felt extra sweet. Some fans have tried to further fuel the tensions in the build-up to this game.

Key facts and stats

➤ After consecutive wins, Udinese have lost their last two Serie A matches against Milan (2-4 on aggregate); the Bianconeri could suffer three defeats in a row against the Rossoneri in the top-flight for the first time since January/December 2008 (Pasquale Marino on the Bianconeri bench and Carlo Ancelotti on that of Milan).

➤ Milan will become the fourth team against which Udinese will play at least 100 Serie A games (currently 99), after Juventus (101), Roma (102) and Inter (104): furthermore, the Rossoneri are the team against which the Bianconeri have drawn the most matches – 36 (W19 L44) – with the last draw coming, however, in February 2022 (1-1, goals by Rafael Leão for the Rossoneri and Destiny Udogie for the Bianconeri).

➤ Milan have lost half of their last 16 away games against Udinese in Serie A (W5 D3 L8), three more defeats than they suffered against the Friulians in their previous 33 away games in the tournament (W12 D16 L5). In the period (since May 2009), only against Inter (nine) and Juventus (10) have the Rossoneri lost more away games in the competition.

➤ After a six-match unbeaten run (W4 D2), Udinese have lost their last three league games; the Friulians could suffer four consecutive defeats in a single Serie A season for the first time since the last four matches of the 2022/23 season, under Andrea Sottil.

➤ Milan have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last four away league games (W1 D3); only on five other occasions have the Rossoneri conceded at least two goals in five consecutive away matches in the tournament, the last time coming between August and October 2013, with Massimiliano Allegri as manager.

➤ Milan have conceded eight goals in the first 10 minutes of play in Serie A this season, including both goals conceded in the last round against Fiorentina; the last time the Rossoneri conceded more goals in this period in a single Serie A season was in 1948/49 (12).

➤ Since the start of 2025, with the arrival of Sérgio Conceição, no team has gone behind more times than Milan in Serie A (10, equal to Empoli, Parma and Monza). However, in this period, only Bologna have gained more points (16) after trailing than the Rossoneri(13).

➤ In this Serie A season, only Inter (130) and Atalanta (121) have more successful crosses from open play than Udinese (110, as Bologna), with the Bianconeri also having the third most headed goals (nine), again behind Inter (13) and Atalanta (11). On the other hand Milan have conceded only three headed goals in the current tournament, more than only Udinese (1) and Napoli (0).

➤ The second of the two goals scored in Serie A by Kingsley Ehizibue came against Milan at the Bluenergv Stadium, on 18 March 2023; since then the Dutchman is the defender who has attempted the most shots (37) and had the most touches in the opposition box (76) without finding the back of the net in Serie A (in 57 appearances).

➤ With his goal against Fiorentina, Tammy Abraham has now scored 29 goals in Serie A; only two English players have scored more in the top-flight than the AC Milan striker – David Platt (31) and Gerald Hitchens (59). Furthermore, he could find the net in three consecutive matches in all competitions for the first time since he has been playing in Italy.

Ones to watch

Abraham will get another opportunity to prove that he deserves to stay at Milan beyond his loan, while Leao and Pulisic will as usual be the main threats in transition, and Reijnders will be looking to build on his 13 goals for the season.

However, what fans have been crying out for is a bit of solidity. Therefore, it will be necessary for Fofana to play the role of balancer more effectively after some recent struggles, and the full-backs will play an important job in helping protect the centre-backs.

Photo by Emmanuele Ciancaglini/Getty Images

There is no doubting that Lucca is Udinese’s danger man with 12 goals to his name across all competitions, earning him links with some top clubs in Italy including Milan. Ekkelenkamp has been a good addition, with six goal contributions (four goals, two assists) for the Dutchman from a wide position.

Jake Bijol remains the anchor of the defence, and Jesper Karlstrom has been the most relied-upon in the midfield. The Slovenian and the Swede are the only Bianconeri players to eclipse 30 starts in all competitions.

Prediction

It’s hard to feel confident going into any Milan game at the moment and this is no exception. Clean sheets seem so far away, as do good first-half performances, so we can expect the Diavolo to have to come from behind to grab something at the Friuli.

Udinese 1-1 AC Milan