UEFA Nations League Preview: Italy vs Germany – Team News, Line-ups & Prediction | OneFootball

Stadio San Siro is the venue as Italy and Germany go head-to-head in the first leg of their mouth-watering UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie. Thursday’s encounter in Milan marks the first meeting between familiar foes since June 2022.

Italy seemed on the verge of locking down a top-table finish in a highly competitive Group A2. However, those dreams came crashing down on the final matchday. France avenged a 3-1 loss in Paris with an identical victory on this ground to condemn Luciano Spalletti’s team to a runner-up spot.

Despite suffering their first defeat after a notorious EURO 2024 fiasco, Italy sealed a third consecutive qualification for the Nations League playoffs. Yet, they couldn’t get past the semi-finals in the last two attempts, finishing third on both occasions. Furthermore, they didn’t have to navigate the quarter-finals in the previous editions.

As for Germany, this is their debut in the Nations League playoff stages. Perhaps surprisingly for a nation of this quality, Die Mannschaft’s past Nations League campaigns failed to deliver much joy. Former Bayern Munich manager Julian Nagelsmann could flip that script as he looks to atone for the EURO 2024 heartbreak.

The Germans’ quest to secure continental glory ended at the hands of eventual winners Spain in the quarter-finals under controversial circumstances. Unfazed by that gut-wrenching elimination, they’ve reigned supreme post-tournament and will undoubtedly take the field in high spirits.

Match Preview

Italy

Before France’s victory at the San Siro, Italy’s Group A2 campaign had all the makings of plain sailing. Indeed, Spalletti’s charges had won four of their opening five matches (D1), including away victories against Belgium and the French. But they’ve struggled to impress at home.

Except for a 4-1 demolition of Israel, they only picked up one point from two remaining home matches in the group phase, courtesy of a 2-2 draw against Belgium. Far from imperious on home turf, Italy must defy recent history to progress from this blockbuster tie.

Gli Azzurri haven’t beaten Germany in any of their last six meetings across all competitions (D3, L3), including a pair of winless duels in the previous Nations League cycle (D1, L1). On the bright side, they avoided defeat in each encounter they hosted in that sequence.

However, they’ve been prone to slow starts in this fixture, drawing a blank in the first half across their last six matches against the Germans. There’s no doubt Spalletti would appreciate a change of scenery later this evening.

Germany

Despite boasting a formidable form against Italy, Germany last triumphed in this country in 1986 under the legendary Franz Beckenbauer. As such, Nagelsmann can follow in the footsteps of the immortal ‘Kaizer’ and become the first German boss in the 21st century to taste victory on Italian soil.

Optimism is bursting at the seams as Die Mannschaft took this trip amid a purple patch. Barring the abovementioned extra-time heartache against Spain at the Euros, Nagelsmann’s men have gone unbeaten in their remaining 14 internationals since the start of 2024 (W10, D4), including a near-flawless Nations League group-stage campaign (W4, D2).

Germany finished top of their group, ahead of the Netherlands, displaying attractive football and often running over their opposition. For context, they hammered Bosnia & Herzegovina 7-0 while putting five unanswered goals past Hungary en route to an eye-catching 18-goal tally across six matches.

Team News

Italy will be without Inter wingback Federico Dimarco, while Andrea Cambiasso’s availability hangs in the balance. Therefore, Destiny Udogie is the likeliest candidate to start on the left. Atalanta star Mateo Retegui had to leave the camp due to injury, with Moise Kean staking his claim for a starting berth.

On the other hand, Germany cannot call upon Bayer Leverkusen playmaker Florian Wirtz and Arsenal striker Kai Havertz. Borussia Monchengladbach’s Kleindienst should take the latter’s place in attack, while Mainz’s Nadir Amiri returns to the national team for the first time in four years to replace Wirtz.

Italy vs Germany Potential Starting Line-ups

Italy (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Politano, Barella, Rovella, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Kean.

Germany (4-2-3-1): Nubel; Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Andrich, Gross; Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst.

Italy vs Germany Prediction

Given a full-blown injury crisis in the German camp, this feels like a prime opportunity for Italy to break their drought in this match-up. It won’t be straightforward, but Spalletti’s team could narrowly edge Die Mannschaft ahead of next week’s second leg on the road.