Bundesliga Tips: Champions to find it tough going | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Xabi Alonso's Leverkusen are about to lose the Bundesliga title race

The title race in Germany is close to being decided, and TV commentator Kevin Hatchard is back with his best bets...

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Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg - Swabians won't just step aside

Saturday 26 April, 14:30

They gave it a good go, but Bayer Leverkusen are on the cusp of losing their Bundesliga title to Bayern Munich, and uncertain times lie ahead. The champions have seen their title defence drown in draws - last week's 1-1 stalemate at St Pauli was Bayer's tenth league draw of the campaign, and they are now eight points off top spot with just four matchdays remaining. If Leverkusen fail to beat Augsburg and Bayern win against Mainz, the title race is over.

The recent Pokal semi-final defeat to third-tier Arminia Bielefeld was a nightmare result, as was the 5-0 demolition on aggregate by their old foes Bayern in the Champions League. To make matters worse, this feels like a Leverkusen team that's close to being broken up.

Commanding centre-back Jonathan Tah has confirmed his departure, with Barcelona likely to recruit him on a free transfer. Playmaker Florian Wirtz is yet to pen the new contract he was offered months ago, Alex Grimaldo has expressed a desire to return to his native Spain in the near future, while his fellow wing-back Jeremie Frimpong keeps being linked with a Premier League switch.

Perhaps most damaging of all is the seemingly imminent departure of inspirational coach Xabi Alonso. The Basque turned down Liverpool and Bayern in the summer, but he looks likely to replace Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid at the end of the current campaign. Xabi Alonso has worked miracles at Leverkusen, delivering the first unbeaten league and cup double in German football history.

Bayer lacked belief and energy at St Pauli last week, and this week's opponents Augsburg are in miserly mood. The Swabian side are in the mix for Europe after a run of one defeat in 14 games. Across those 14 league outings, FCA have conceded a barely believable tally of seven goals. Keeper Finn Dahmen has excelled since his recall in January, and centre-backs like Chrislain Matsima, Cedrci Zesiger and skipper Jeffrey Gouweleeuw have been routinely outstanding.

I'm happy to give Augsburg a +1.5 buffer on the Asian Handicap here at 1.84. Leverkusen are buckling under the pressure, they have dropped points in five of the last ten matchdays, and they have only managed eight league wins by a multiple-goal margin in 30 attempts this term.

Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund - Super Serhou to strike again

Saturday 26 April, 14:30

Whisper it, but Borussia Dortmund might actually have found some consistency at just the right time to save a miserable season. They were levered out of the Champions League by Barcelona at the quarter-final stage, so there was no shame there. However, their DFB Pokal chances have long since gone, and in the league they have been behind the 8-ball since the decision to hand the coaching keys to former BVB midfielder Nuri Sahin. He was sacked just a few months into his reign.

Croatian taskmaster Niko Kovac has managed to achieve a semblance of solidity, and a run of ten points from four games has taken BVB to within four points of the top four, and three points of the top six. Three of their remaining four matches are against bottom-half teams, so a remarkable finish could be on the cards.

One of the players powering this surge is star striker Serhou Guirassy. The Guinea international scored a hat-trick recently against Barcelona, and he netted in last week's 3-2 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach. The former Stuttgart forward got 30 goals in all competitions last term, and this season he has 29 already.

Guirassy is priced at 10/11 to score here, and he has five goals in his last five games as he comes up against a Hoffenheim team that is pretty much safe from the drop. TSG have an eight-point lead over third-bottom Heidenheim, and only a disastrous and hugely unlikely set of results would see them dragged back into the mire.

Hoffenheim have leaked 55 goals in 30 league games, and they almost always concede at home. TSG have kept just one clean sheet in their last 35 Bundesliga home matches, and I believe Guirassy can score against them here.

I'm also going to go for an Over 2.5 Goals double involving Stuttgart v Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel v Gladbach at 2.16 on the Sportsbook. Stuttgart have been a regular source of entertainment, with 14 of their last 18 competitive home games featuring three goals or more, while Heidenheim have one of the worst defensive records in the division.

Holstein Kiel have the best goalscoring record in the bottom six, but they also have the worst defence in the division, and they face a Gladbach team that has seen an overs bet land in 19 of 30 league games this term.

Now read our Bets of the Day here!

Recommended bets

Back Augsburg +1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.84

Back Serhou Guirassy to score @ 10/11

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Stuttgart v Heidenheim and Kiel v Gladbach @ 2.16