Opta Predicts Liverpool v Everton: Back Salah in 39/1 Merseyside derby Bet Builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back Opta's Liverpool v Everton bet builder at 39/1

Liverpool host Everton on Wednesday night so Opta present the stats behind their bet builder for the big game at Anfield...

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After a break for international football and the FA Cup, the Premier League is finally back. So, what better way to celebrate its return than with a tasty derby fixture in which we saw three red cards fewer than two months ago.

Let's dive into the data and find some value.

Everton impressing but hard to look beyond Liverpool

It's been a while since both of these teams played a league game, with Everton most recently drawing 1-1 with West Ham on 15 March, while Liverpool's 3-1 win over Southampton was almost a month ago.

But despite the hiatus, things are rosy in the garden for Everton. Since David Moyes returned to the club on 11 January, they have earned the fifth-most points (17) in the Premier League behind only Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool.

That record equates to four victories, five draws and one defeat and matches the points total they had accrued in 19 matches under Sean Dyche before he was sacked.

The Toffees lost 1-0 to Aston Villa in their first game in Moyes' second spell at the club just four days into his tenure. Scrub that game and Everton have the third-best points total from then on, accumulating just six points fewer than Liverpool across nine games.

That's the good news for Wednesday's visitors, but the bad news for them is that it is still hard to make a case for them winning at Anfield even taking the above into consideration. At home, Liverpool have won seven of the last eight meetings between the teams in all competitions and the Reds are healthy favourites with the Opta supercomputer to earn another derby triumph.

Liverpool have also lost just one of their last 24 home Merseyside derbies in the Premier League. Moyes, meanwhile, has failed to win any of the 19 games against Liverpool he has managed at Anfield - the joint-most times any manager has faced an opponent on the road without a single victory in the competition.

Despite a couple of defeats, it's also hardly as if Everton are catching Liverpool in a truly sticky patch looking at recent results. Prior to their loss at home to Paris Saint-Germain in March, Liverpool had won four on the spin in all competitions.

That result in the Champions League ended a 19-match run without defeat (W17 D2) in all competitions at Anfield, while the hosts remain unbeaten in their last 15 domestic matches at home.

While it isn't news to anyone that Liverpool have been impressive at Anfield this season, for the benefit of this preview it bears repeating that they have the division's best home record, with 11 victories, four draws and just one defeat. They have lost only two of their last 45 home league games - a run that stretches back to November 2022.

So, what we can glean from that is that Liverpool are rightly favourites at 1/3 based on form. Given that they are also just one Merseyside derby win away from a ton of victories against Everton, it is difficult to make an argument against their 100th.

Everton are likely to remain in touch

In tipping Liverpool to win at Anfield, it is important that we don't get ahead of ourselves and expect a rout. Just two of the last 19 matches between these teams have seen the teams be separated by more than two goals.

Everton have drawn more matches (five) than any other team since Moyes came back to the club, while only Liverpool (zero) have lost fewer than the one defeat the Toffees have suffered. That suggests Moyes has made Everton solid if unspectacular and capable of remaining competitive - as much was evident during their 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Goodison Park.

Everton outshot Liverpool 10-6 in that frantic February fixture, while restricting them to just 0.62 xG - their lowest total in the league this season. As a result, it is unsurprising that under 3.5 goals is as short as 4/11, while Liverpool to win by exactly one goal looks appealing at 5/2.

Given the expected tight nature of this one, it is hard to discount the possibility of another sting in the tail for Liverpool, just as they had in the reverse. Including James Tarkowski's equaliser against Liverpool, Everton have scored five goals from the 75th minute onwards in their last seven league games.

That strike from Tarkowski (timed at 97:07) was, in fact, the second-latest goal Liverpool have conceded in the Premier League since Opta began recording such data in 2006-07.

So goals in both halves could be a shrewd addition to a bet builder at 8/13. Everton to win either half, meanwhile, looks long at 16/5.

More cards in the Merseyside derby

It would be remiss to preview the Merseyside derby without mentioning its reputation for a card or two. This is the Premier League fixture with the most red cards (25) in its history, while the 17 reds issued to Everton players against Liverpool is the most any team has picked up against another in the competition.

It lived up to its reputation last time, with Abdoulaye Doucoure and Curtis Jones becoming the 24th and 25th players to be sent off in the fixture. Arne Slot also picked up a red card after some choice words to referee Michael Oliver.

Given that Wednesday's referee Sam Barrott has given 80 yellow cards in the 17 matches he has officiated in the Premier League this season, at an average of 4.7 per game, we should expect some bookings.

A red card to be shown in the match is available at 9/2, while another Liverpool sending off is 9/1 compared to 7/1 for an Everton red. But a repeat of Goodison Park, where a player from each side was shown a red, is priced at 45/1.

The four cards picked up by Everton in the previous derby was their highest total since Moyes returned to the club. But there is a trend of Everton players getting in trouble against the top teams, with 18 of their 56 yellow cards (32%) this season have come against teams currently in the top five, despite having only played each of them once.

So, the 4/7 about Everton to pick up more cards than Liverpool looks a decent shout, while over 3.5 away cards represents value at 19/10. In terms of individuals, Idrissa Gueye tops the list for a booking at 17/10.

Gueye has completed more tackles (110) than any other player in the Premier League, while he has also committed more fouls than any Everton player this season (42) - there are only 11 Premier League players who are on a higher number. He has also picked up the equal-most bookings in the league for Everton, level on six with Ashley Young.

Gueye is also available at 8/11 to commit two or more fouls. Given his price, he is worth siding with in a Build Ups bet on fouls against a shorter-priced pick such as Tim Irogebunam, who is 4/9 in the same market despite having made 29 fewer fouls this season.

Elsewhere, we obviously have to mention the machine that is Mohamed Salah, who both scored and assisted at Goodison Park.

This is not to say you shouldn't back him to score once again, but at 15/8 in the assist market he sticks out as massive value.

Salah has created 69 chances in the Premier League this season, which is the second-most in the league. In addition to that, his 17 assists are more than any other top-flight player. He also has a 26.92% success rate from crosses, which is the second-highest of any Liverpool player to have attempted 18 or more crosses behind the injured Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Recommended bets

Back Liverpool win by 1, Gueye carded, Everton most cards, Salah assist @ 39/1

Ste Tudor's Build Up Tips on the Merseyside derby:

Beto more Shots on Target than Diego Jota

Merseyside derbies held at Anfield have been easy to deal with in recent years. You simply back the Reds to win and for Mo Salah to score, then get on with your day.

Does the same apply to this Wednesday’s clash? Evidently not, and this despite the hosts being brilliant for the most part this season and Everton largely being anything but.

Concerning Arne Slot’s men, consecutive cup losses come into play. Like a previously undefeated heavyweight boxer encountering two trips to the canvas, Liverpool suddenly appear mortal and perhaps the same can be said of Salah, incredible from August to mid-March.

At Wembley, in the League Cup final, the Egyptian Prince failed to muster any attempt on goal for only the second time in 2024/25.

Still, using Betfair’s Build Up tool you would always back Salah over anyone else on the pitch, and that certainly includes his team-mate Diogo Jota who has been subbed around the hour-mark in each of his last four domestic outings.

Having established himself as a regular starter under Slot, the Portuguese attacker has diligently put in the hard yards up front but to scant effect. Remarkably, he hasn’t posted a shot on target for the Reds in 409 minutes.

Compare and contrast with Beto, his attacking counterpart this week, and the numbers are convincing. Capitalising on Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s absence, and buoyed by having better support around him courtesy of David Moyes’ more proactive approach, Beto has racked up a highly impressive 16 shots on target from his last nine starts. This includes two against Liverpool at Goodison last month, one of which was the game’s opener.

As far as the result goes, the hosts are 4/11 to prevail and furthermore are expected to create the greater number of chances throughout. A backline that has kept just one league clean sheet in their last six at home, however, along with Beto’s superb recent returns, makes this bet an attractive one.