Premier League Opta Stats: Best bets for every midweek game including a stroll for City | OneFootball

English Premier League

Pep Guardiola has Man City moving in the right direction so they should see-off Leicester with ease

There's a full midweek fixture list in the Premier League so Paul Higham is back with the best bets for each game using statistical nuggets from our friends at Opta...

Betfair Tuesday Football Superboost

Manchester United go to high-flying Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Tuesday night and Betfair have boosted the odds on the visitors' captain having a shot on target.

Bruno Fernandes has had 12 shots on target in his last five matches and you can back him to have one or more against Forest at 1/1 boosted from 8/15.

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There's a full midweek of fixtures in the Premier League, so we've got the pick of the Opta stats to compile a best bet for each game, including a stroll for Man City, a lively combo for Newcastle and more bad blood in the Merseyside derby at Anfield.

Arsenal v Fulham

Tuesday 19:45

Merino the man for Arsenal

The Opta Stat

"Arsenal have never lost in 31 home league games against Fulham, winning 24 and drawing seven. It's the most home games one side has played against another without ever losing in English Football League history. Of Mikel Merino's six Premier League goals (5 for Arsenal, 1 Newcastle), five have given his side the lead in a match."

Wolves v West Ham

Tuesday 19:45

Goals, goals, goal at Molineux

The Opta Stat:

"Wolves' Premier League games this season have seen 98 goals (40 for, 58 against), the joint-most of any club, along with Tottenham Hotspur. Should this game against West Ham see 2+ goals, 30 games will be the earliest into a league campaign that Wolves have scored and conceded a combined 100 goals since 1985-86 in the third tier (27th match), and earliest in the top-flight since 1967-68 (26th)."

Nottingham Forest v Man Utd

Tuesday 20:00

Back in-form playmakers at Old Trafford

The Opta Stat:

"Morgan Gibbs-White has assisted a goal in both of Nottingham Forest's last two Premier League games; the only players to assist a goal in three successive appearances for the club in the competition are Steve Stone (Apr 1995), Ian Woan (Nov 1995), Gibbs-White himself (Apr 2024), and Anthony Elanga (Jan 2025). Bruno Fernandes has scored (3 goals) or assisted (3 assists) a goal in each of his last four Premier League games for Manchester United. Only twice before has he had a longer run of goal involvements in the competition: five appearances from February to June 2020, and six from December 2022 to February 2023."

The Betfair Bet: Back Fernandes goal or assist & Gibbs-White assist at 7/1

Bournemouth v Ipswich

Wednesday 19:45

Cherries to maintain Ipswich run

The Opta Stat:

"Both teams have scored in each of the last eight league games between Bournemouth and Ipswich stretching back to March 1989, while the Cherries have scored in each of the last 11 against the Tractor Boys. Ipswich have only won one of their 16 away league games against Bournemouth."

Brighton v Aston Villa

Wednesday 19:45

Pick Pedro at the Amex

The Opta Stat:

"Aston Villa and Brighton have each both scored and conceded in 20 of their 29 Premier League games this season, with only Fulham's games seeing both teams score more often in the division this campaign (21). Brighton's Joao Pedro has more goal involvements against Aston Villa (4 - 1 goal, 3 assists) than any other opponent in the Premier League."

Man City v Leicester

Wednesday 19:45

City too slick for toothless Foxes

The Opta Stat:

"Manchester City have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Leicester, winning the last six in a row by an aggregate score of 15-4. Leicester City have lost 13 of their last 14 Premier League games (W1), including their last six in a row without scoring a single goal."

The Betfair Bet: Back Man City win to nil at 11/10

Newcastle v Brentford

Wednesday 19:45

Bruno to bag more fouls

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle's Bruno Guimarães has won 92 fouls in the Premier League this season, at least 34 more than any other player. Indeed, since Opta have this data in the competition (from 2003-04), among players with 5,000+ minutes, only Jack Grealish (3.8) and Wilfried Zaha (3.1) win more fouls per 90 than the Brazilian (3.0). Alexander Isak has scored 19 Premier League goals this season - nine at home and 10 away. The only Newcastle players to score 10+ goals both home and away in a season in the competition are Andrew Cole (1993-94) and Alan Shearer (2001-02)."

Southampton v Crystal Palace

Wednesday 19:45

Eagles rearguard to shackle Saints

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace have won their last four Premier League games against Southampton. Southampton have lost each of their last nine Premier League home games, Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five Premier League away games, winning the last four of those."

The Betfair Bet: Back Palace win to nil at 9/5

Liverpool v Everton

Wednesday 19:45

Tempers to flare again at Anfield

The Opta Stat:

"Everton vs Liverpool has produced more red cards than any other fixture in Premier League history (25), with the Toffees' 17 reds against the Reds also the most one team has against another in the competition. Abdoulaye Doucouré (Everton) and Curtis Jones (Liverpool) were both sent off late on in the reverse fixture in February."

The Betfair Bet: Back a red card in the match at 9/2

Chelsea v Tottenham

Thursday 20:00

Blues to win another battle at the Bridge

The Opta Stat:

"Chelsea have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Spurs (W9 D2), winning the last three in a row by an aggregate score of 10-4. Chelsea have won more Premier League games (36) and scored more Premier League goals (120) against Tottenham than they have vs any other opponent. Indeed, only three teams have scored more goals against a side in the competition than their 120 vs Spurs (Arsenal vs Everton, Manchester United vs Everton, Liverpool vs Newcastle, all 124)."

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