Saturday FA Cup Tips: Back goals at Fulham and Brighton | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Stinch is back to preview Saturday's two FA Cup ties

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the FA Cup on Saturday...

Betfair Saturday Football Superboost

The FA Cup quarter-finals begin with a London derby at Craven Cottage where Fulham host Crystal Palace and it's a visiting player who takes centre stage in the Betfair Saturday Football Superboost.

Jean-Philippe Mateta has registered 12 shots on target in his last 10 games and Betfair have boosted the price on him having one or more here from 1/2 to 1/1.

Fulham v Crystal Palace (Saturday, 13:15)

We're down to the final eight in the FA Cup and with only Manchester City (3.4 to lift the trophy) left of the traditional 'big six', the rest of the sides can really fancy their chances of making it to an FA Cup Final.

Since the 1980/81 season, the big six have won 37 of the last 44 competitions (84%) to show their dominance and perhaps provide another reason why sides don't take the competition as serious as they used to. But at the quarter-final stage, that certainly isn't the case now.

Both sides come into this tie in great form. Fulham, 8.8 to win the FA Cup, have won eight of their last 14 games and looking further back have lost just five of their last 24 matches across all competitions. It's some feat considering they have kept only four clean sheets during this period. They'll come into this full of confidence going forward, having scored two or more goals in nine of their last 12 matches.

I've been waxing lyrical about this Crystal Palace side for a while (13.0 for FA Cup success), and after a cool start to the season where they struggled to adjust to a Michael Olise shaped hole in the side, they have collected the fourth most points in the league since the end of October. They've lost only four of their last 21 games across all competitions, and similar to Fulham have been consistent in-front of goal, scoring two or more in 12 of those games.

With both sides high on confidence, I'm going back to the well of one of my favourite betting approaches this season and that's to back goals. Ten of Fulham's last 16 matches have seen over 2.5 goals and it's been the same strike rate at Craven Cottage this season.

For Palace, seven of their last 14 matches against Premier League opposition have seen over 2.5 goals but the beauty here is we have a goal line of just 2.25. With only zero or one goals seeing our bet completely lose and with both sides in great form, particularly going forward, I can easily see one team scoring two and we're well on our way to a winner.

Brighton v Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 18:15)

Another tie containing two sides in excellent form. Brighton, 6.2 third favourites for FA Cup glory, have won eight of their last 12 games and further back have suffered just two defeats in their last 16. They made the FA Cup semi-finals two years ago only to lose on penalties to Man Utd and are rated as 1.87 to progress to that stage again in 90 minutes.

I've been expecting Nottingham Forest's excellent season to stutter at some point but they're showing absolutely no signs whatsoever having won 10 of their last 15 league games. They've built a five point gap to fourth place Chelsea and with only Chelsea left to play in the top eight in their remaining nine games, they should really fancy their chances of finishing the season strongly.

One of their successes this season has been the goalscoring prowess of Chris Wood. He's the fourth top scorer in the Premier League with 18 goals - his best ever return at this level - and he loves playing against this weekend's opponents in Brighton. He's scored more goals against them than any other team in his career with 12 in 24 appearances, with seven in 14 in the Premier League. This includes the four times he's netted against them in their two league games this season.

So again with two sides in cracking form, it will come as no surprise that it's goals I want to back at the prices again. Eighteen of Brighton's last 25 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (72%) and 15 of Forest's last 24 games have seen three or more goals (63%).

Nottingham Forest's great season has been built on their strong defence but they're overachieving defensively by 5.50 goals based on xG against so there could be some regression to the mean due. Just last month Forest beat Brighton 7-0 and in this same fixture in the league in September it finished 2-2.

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