Manchester City v Aston Villa: Back in-form Villa to spring a surprise | OneFootball

English Premier League

Unai Emery's Aston Villa are on the charge

Two Champions League qualification contenders go head-to-head on Tuesday night, and Kevin Hatchard doesn't think the hosts will claim maximum points...

Manchester City v Aston VillaTuesday 22 April, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Main Event

City can still save miserable season

While Manchester City have been nowhere near their usual standards in the Premier League or the Champions League, they can still stamp their ticket for European football's VIP club, and they still have an opportunity to win the FA Cup.

City still aren't perfect by any means, and they had to work incredibly hard for the weekend's 2-0 victory at Everton. In-form academy product Nico O'Reilly netted an 85th-minute opener, before Mateo Kovacic sealed the win. Before then, keeper Stefan Ortega had kept the Toffees at bay.

With an aged and Rodri-less midfield still a big issue for City, you can still never quite back them to win with a degree of certainty. They had to come back from 2-0 down in their last home game before they crushed Crystal Palace 5-2, and they have only won five of their last ten Premier League matches. The run-in is fairly kind though (they face Wolves and Bournemouth at home, Southampton and Fulham on the road), and there's an argument to say this Tuesday showdown with Villa is their toughest remaining match.

Phil Foden and Manuel Akanji are pushing for recalls, but keeper Ederson is still struggling with a groin injury. Erling Haaland, John Stones, Nathan Ake and Rodri are all still sidelined.

Angry Villa back in the mix

After watching his team demolish top-five rivals Newcastle 4-1 at Villa Park, Aston Villa boss Unai Emery admitted his team had used their anger at exiting the Champions League to their advantage. The race for Champions League football (a top-five finish will be enough this term) is so tight, with seventh-placed Villa now just two points behind third-placed Newcastle.

Villa came so close to a famous turnaround against PSG in the Champions League quarter-finals, and their determination to return to the biggest stage in Europe was clear for all to see against the Magpies, as they steamrollered tired opponents. What was also clear was Villa's squad strength - Ollie Watkins made the most of a starting spot as he scored and struck the woodwork, and substitutes Jacob Ramsey (who forced an own goal from Dan Burn) and Amadou Onana (who nearly broke the net with Villa's fourth goal) made their mark.

Villa have now won six of their last seven Premier League matches, and four of those victories have been against direct rivals for European qualification, with Chelsea, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and now Newcastle all overcome. They have also racked up three straight away victories in the top flight.

Unai Emery's men are scoring freely. They have netted 18 goals across their last eight games, and importantly those goals have come from ten different sources. Marcus Rashford, Donyell Malen and Marco Asensio all arrived during a productive January, and all of those top-quality forwards are contributing.

Pau Torres hopes to return to the back four after injury, while Marcus Rashford will hope to add to his tally of six career goals against Manchester City. Ollie Watkins is just one goal away from becoming Villa's all-time leading scorer in the Premier League.

City too short against top-class rivals

Given Aston Villa's quality in attack and more importantly their energy and squad-strength, I can't be backing Manchester City to win here at 1.88. That's a price based on history and reputation, not the current reality. Villa have been winning consistently in the top division of late, and they've been beating fellow European contenders.

City lost 2-1 at Villa Park in December, and after their squad surgery in January, Villa are stronger now than they were then. Indeed, Unai Emery has won two of his three meetings with City as the Villa boss.

lay the home side at .

City tyro to test Martinez

Although he is playing as a left-back, Nico O'Reilly is an attacking midfielder by trade, and the 20-year-old has netted in his last two Premier League matches. As Pep Guardiola pointed out in his post-match interview on Saturday, City's left-backs do tend to get into good scoring positions, with O'Reilly's predecessor Josko Gvardiol scoring freely from there before he switched to the centre.

O'Reilly has scored three goals in the FA Cup this term, and he's 12/5 just to have a shot on target in this game. If he starts, that's a bet worth making. Nuno Mendes caused havoc against Villa for PSG in the Champions League, and while I'm not suggesting for one moment that O'Reilly is on that level yet, he can get into similar shooting positions and we only need him to work Villa keeper Emi Martinez once.

Now read our other Premier League tips here!

Recommended bets

Lay Manchester City @ 1.88

Back Nico O’Reilly to have a shot on target @ 12/5

Mike Norman's Build Up Tips:

Player To Commit More Fouls

Manchester City midfielder Nico Gonzalez is way ahead of his teammates in terms of committing fouls. The Spaniard has committed 1.38 fouls per game since his arrival in January. In his last six Premier League starts for City has has committed 11 fouls in total.

Aston Villa have a trio of players with similar numbers to Gonzalez this term. John McGinn has committed 1.48 fouls per game, Morgan Rogers 1.34 and Youri Tielemans 1.21.

Gonzalez is odds-on to win the Commit More Fouls Match Up against all three Villa players, but with Man City having home advantage and expected to have more possession he could be worth taking on. Tielemans has committed four fouls in his last four games so we'll take him at 8/5 to commit more fouls than Gonzalez tonight.

Player To Have More Shots on Target

Man City striker Omar Marmoush just loves to get his shots away. He's had 19 shots at goal in his last four Premier League starts but significantly 10 of those have been on target. That's an average of 2.5 shots on target in his last four games. He's likely to be hard to beat in a Shots on Target Match Up against any Villa player.

The best price you'll get for Marmoush is 4/5 against Ollie Watkins. The Villa striker has started just two league games this month and he registered just one shot on target in those matches. If he starts tonight then Marmoush looks worth a bet to win the Match Up.

Man of the moment for City, Nico O'Reilly, has registered two shots on target in his last two Premier League starts and could be a very decent outsider bet against any Villa attacker. He's 6/1 for example to have more shots on target than Watkins and 9/2 to have more than Marco Asensio.