Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 3 Ipswich 0 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the five Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Chelsea 0.77 v Everton 0.92 (1-0)

Brighton 1.29 v West Ham 1.24 (3-2)

Newcastle United 4.12 v Ipswich 0.13 (3-0)

Southampton 0.94 v Fulham 2.00 (1-2)

Wolves 2.58 v Leicester 1.05 (3-0)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Looking at the other Premier League matches, both Wolves (2.58) and Fulham (2.00) clearly creating more/better chances than their opponents with far higher Expected Goals stats than Leicester (1.05) and Southampton (0.94) respectively.

Some clinical finishing clearly at the Amex Stadium, as Brighton and West Ham managed five goals between them despite Expected Goals stats of 1.29 and 1.24 respectively, the Hammers losing by the odd goal.

The frustrating one from a Newcastle United perspective is that despite Chelsea (0.77 Expected Goals stat) clearly creating very little during their match, they still managed to struggle to a 1-0 win against an Everton side that created marginally more goal threat (0.92).

The real stand out game of course, especially from an Expected Goals perspective, was at St James’ Park. Newcastle United with a huge 4.12 Expected Goals stat and Ipswich an almost non-existent 0.13 one. Whilst a ginormous 3.99 differential in the Expected Goals stats for the two teams. It certainly backs up what we saw with out own eyes, that Ipswich were lucky to lose by only three goals.

Newcastle 3 Ipswich 0 – Saturday 26 April 2025 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 45+4, Burn 56, Osula 80

Ipswich

Johnson red card 37

Possession was Newcastle 78% Ipswich 22%

Total shots were Newcastle 25 Ipswich 4

Shots on target were Newcastle 5 Ipswich 0

Corners were Newcastle 11 Ipswich 2

Touches in the box Newcastle 66 Ipswich 6

Newcastle team v Ipswich:

Pope, Trippier, Schar (Botman 83), Burn, Livramento, Willock (Miley 67), Tonali, Bruno, Barnes (Wilson 77), Isak (Osula 77), Murphy (Gordon 67)

Unused subs:

Dubravka, Ruddy, Krafth, Longstaff

(Newcastle 3 Ipswich 0 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)