Newcastle United summer planning (Part 1) – Goalkeepers, Full backs, Centre backs | OneFootball

It has been a wild period of time in recent weeks to be a Newcastle United fan.

From the glorious day at Wembley that ended decades of hurt (and also guaranteed European football next season), to a series of back-to-back league triumphs which have put Newcastle in the box seat for next season’s Champions League, most Newcastle fans are probably hoping that this season, the best of their lives for many, will never end.

But end it will.

With just five games left, thoughts in the upper echelons of St James’ Park will be turning to the summer, and with Newcastle United now one of the hot favourites to finish top five, that means preparing for potentially another season in the Champions League. United having already qualified as a minimum for the Conference League and if by chance missing out on Champions League, Europa League looks realistically the worst it could end up for Eddie Howe and his team.

This article is about how my thoughts on how the club should go about the process of squad-building this summer. It isn’t a detailed scouting report on potential targets, rather an overview of what Newcastle United should be trying to achieve and how they could do it.

Our experience last time when Newcastle United competed in Europe

To start, it is worth reflecting on our experience the last time last time Newcastle United competed in European competition.

It was a heady experience, delivering some incredible nights, but it was ultimately a disappointment.

Not only did we fail to make it out of our (admittedly extremely tough) group, but our league form suffered and we spent this year outside of Europe as a result. The central problem was one of squad depth.

With many more important games on the schedule, Eddie Howe lacked confidence in his squad and chose to try to avoid too much rotation. This approach contributed to an injury crisis which turned a lack of rotation from a choice to a necessity as Newcastle got caught in a vicious cycle. The aim of next year’s campaign (whichever European competition we play in) must be to avoid this experience. This will mean some flexibility from Howe, who has been reluctant to rotate in the past, but also a major upgrade to Newcastle’s squad.

IMAGO/Sportsphoto

The story of Newcastle’s squad since the takeover has been one of shifting priorities. In the first window, the club recruited experienced players to stabilise the team and avoid relegation.

The transfer strategy then changed to targeting younger, pre-peak players with high ceilings (Isak, Gordon, Botman, Tonali) with the aim of building a first XI that could compete at the top of the league.

This was largely successful, but the failure to sell older squad players or flip our new signings meant that last summer was a step back as PSR forced us into losing two of our most promising young players. The result of this is that Newcastle has the core of an elite first team, capable of mixing it with the best. Most of these players are in their peak years, with a couple even younger. But beyond the first team, the squad is a mess.

The Newcastle United bench is full of older players, often from the pre-takeover squad, who the club has been unable to shift. The drop-off in quality from the first team is stark. Where there are patches of quality they are often players whose time at the club is ending due to age (Trippier and Wilson). Most worryingly, there are very few young players in the wider squad, with Lewis Miley and Will Osula the only under-23 players to get any real minutes. Improving this situation has to be the main aim of this summer’s transfer window, giving Howe more options and putting the team in a more sustainable position for the future.

If PSR has been the main constraint on deepening the squad, it is worth pointing out that our PSR situation has also partly been caused by poor squad-building in the pre-takeover days. Under Mike Ashley, the club spent money on a lot of average players at peak ages. The fact that these players were on Premier League wages has meant that they have been basically impossible to sell as they age. This in turn has limited the club’s financial room to manoeuvre. This should be an important lesson for Newcastle United as they look to build out the squad this year.

The good news is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. The rolling PSR window for this summer will now omit the first season post-takeover, while the increasing revenue (from commercial income and success on the pitch) has also increased the headroom. This should leave Newcastle in a strong position to make some sensible signings this summer, and makes us able to resist offers for any of our elite players. The sale of Almiron in January and likely sale of Lloyd Kelly in the summer also open a bit of space.

Finally, a number of expensive contracts are coming to an end this year, meaning Newcastle can finally move on from the likes of Jamal Lewis. This means there is a healthy amount of space on the wage bill to add new signings, even considering compliance with the slightly tougher Uefa financial rules. In fact, so much space should open on the wage bill that we should be able to upgrade the squad and renew some crucial contracts without increasing the total wage spend at all.

So how should the club use this space?

When planning a transfer window it is important to consider what ‘phase’ the team is in. Very few teams have the luxury of a club like Manchester City who are trying to win the league every year. For most, even big clubs like Liverpool and Arsenal, there is an acknowledgement that squad-building is a cyclical process with a few years of building being followed by a few years of being competitive as your stars hit their peaks, before the process begins again. The age profile of the team really, really matters.

If you are trying to compete for a title, signing a player with a high ceiling but who isn’t yet ready to compete may be a bad idea. Likewise, if your team is in a rebuilding phase, with the aim of being competitive at the top in two or three years’ time, it is a very bad idea to splash the cash on a 30yr old whose legs will probably be going just as your team wants to kick on.

As already mentioned, Liverpool and Arsenal are both good examples of teams smartly building squads of players to try and hit their peaks around the same time. Manchester United are a good example of the opposite approach, signing Casemiro to a huge contract at exactly the point they should have been refreshing with younger players.

So where are Newcastle at in this process?

As already mentioned, we have the core of a starting XI who are extremely competitive, including one of the best strikers in world football. None of these players are at imminent risk of being sold, and only one (Joelinton) is potentially going to see age-related decline in the next two or three years. I would argue therefore that the team is in more of a ‘win now’ phase, and we should be looking to capitalise on this generation of talent with consistent Champions League qualification and tilts at domestic trophies, while also building the foundations of the next great team.

We therefore arrive at a number of key objectives for this summer window:

– Strengthen the first XI to maximise the potential achievement of this talented team over the next few years – Revamp the squad to enable rotation which will allow us to compete on multiple fronts – Lower the average age profile of the squad, with saleability and PSR in mind

That was a lengthy preamble, but it is important to understand the objectives before trying to design a strategy for a transfer window. Failing to do so is the way to not only have a bad window, but also store up big problems for the future. In a world of PSR, it is even more important that the club doesn’t make costly mistakes.

Squad audit:

Goalkeepers:

This area of the squad is a bit of a mess.

Nick Pope is the No1 but there are question marks about his ability and fit for the way the team currently plays. He’s also not reliably fit and at 32 is not the future of this position. For this reason he also wouldn’t generate a big fee, and given his wages aren’t huge it would probably make sense to keep him around for next season as 2nd choice.

Martin Dubravka was a rare hit in the pre-takeover transfer policy, and has done an acceptable job filling in for Pope, but he is 36 and looks set to depart.

Vlachidimos is why you don’t mess up your PSR position. Reportedly signed for £20m as part of the Anderson swap deal, he has years left on his contract and would be impossible to sell even for a fraction of that price. Newcastle should take the loss if we can shift him, if not we should try to loan him and at least get some of the wages off the books.

The 4th and 5th choices are John Ruddy and Mark Gillespie, both of whom have expiring contracts this year.

Improving the goalkeeping position is clearly on the agenda and the strongest link is to James Trafford who the club tried to sign last summer before the PSR crisis. At 22, and already good enough, this would be a smart signing for the rumoured price of £25-£30m. Keeping Pope would be an insurance policy in case he struggles to step up.

Other rumours include links to players like Kelleher who would also be a decent option.

Depending on what happens to Vlachidimos, we might also need a 3rd choice.

Centre backs

At the end of last season, I’m sure NUFC didn’t expect Burn and Schar to play the majority of games together this season. But the failure to sign a new RCB last summer, combined with Botman’s injury problems, means the veterans have had to hold the fort for most of the year. They have done so admirably, and still have plenty to offer, but we shouldn’t depend on them to be our first choices next season. Botman is a fantastic player when fit, and was pretty good in his handful of appearances this season, hopefully he can put these injury issues behind him. Finally we have Jamal Lascelles who hasn’t played this season and is also well into his 30s. His contract was extended for an extra season, but that may have been to try and protect his value so we can receive a small fee for him in the summer.

This leaves us entering the summer at least one centre-back light. Krafth’s ability to cover at centre back in a crisis is valuable (spoiler alert, I’m recommending keeping him around) and it is also possible that we sign another hybrid centre back/full back.

Given this, the focus here should be on the starting RCB role. The club was clearly willing to drop significant cash on this role last summer, making a number of offers for Marc Guehi, and it does make sense to prioritise this position. We should be looking for a player ready-made to step in and immediately play the majority of games, while still having most of their peak ahead of them.

A second move for Guehi may be on the cards. With one year left on his deal, Palace probably should have sold last summer. I wouldn’t pay more than £30m for him this summer, especially given that he will probably have relatively high wages.

We are one of a number of clubs that have been linked with Dean Huijsen. In truth, we should have signed him last summer when he was an absolute steal. He is much younger than Guehi, but already performing at a high enough level. A £50m release clause is high, but not prohibitive.

The question is whether this makes sense for Huijsen. I would argue it would be a good move for him. He would play plenty of minutes at a high level, and is only 20 years old. There is a deal here that could work for both parties, if we inserted a release clause set at a reasonable level (£75-80m) that could kick in after two years at the club. This would mean he should still be able to move to the likes of Real Madrid at a young age if he wishes to, and avoids the risk of his career stalling if he makes the jump too soon. Newcastle United meanwhile get at least a couple of years of an excellent centre back, and close to a guarantee of flipping for a sizeable profit. The player may prefer to take his chances at Real Madrid or similar straight away, and fair enough, but we should be exploring this option vigorously.

Other young right centre backs have been linked such as Sporting’s Ousmane Diomande or Milan’s Malick Thiaw. Both seem to be the right profile of player, though neither offer the guarantees of Guehi or Huijsen.

Finally, we have been linked to Southampton’s Taylor Harwood-Bellis, who was called up for England recently despite his club team’s diabolical defensive record. This would be more of a risk, but he is a good age and is highly rated.

Ultimately, Botman’s injury issues mean we should get as close to a sure thing as possible in this position. Guehi or Huijsen would be my choices, especially as both can perform on either side of the centre back pairing.

Full backs

I love our full backs.

In Livramento and Hall, we have two young, English, high quality full backs with complimentary profiles. Tino’s ability to moonlight on the left is an added bonus. These guys should be the mainstay of these positions for the foreseeable future. Behind them, things get pretty ropey.

The reason Tino is currently starting at left back in Hall’s absence is because of the lack of other options in this position. Burn has been needed at CB and given his age, the days of him filling in a left back are probably done.

Lloyd Kelly’s signing made some sense, but he never really convinced, and cashing out in January was a smart (if risky) decision. Matt Targett is probably the worst signing of the post-takeover era. An ok player a few years ago, injury has meant he has hardly contributed and he has been left behind by the evolution of the team. He has one year left on his deal and we should be doing everything possible to get at least most of his wages off our books for next season.

The situation at right back is slightly better. Trippier is clearly aging out of this team, but he has rediscovered some form and has made a big contribution to the cup final and the end of this season. His contract expires this summer and the expectation is that he leaves. Krafth has struggled with injury, but is a solid enough player when fit, and his versatility is important. Given he has low wages and little resale value, it makes sense to keep him around for another year. It is worth mentioning here that we also have young Leo Shahar, who is highly rated but has never played senior football. It would be good to see what he can do with a loan move next season.

So we are probably looking for two players here, one on each side, ideally with at least one also able to cover at centre back (preferably the left back).

There is a bit less pressure on these recruitments as we already have the players who should be first choice for years to come. But in some senses that also makes them tricky positions to fill, as incoming players will know they might have limited opportunities. Given needs elsewhere in the team, trying to fill these roles as cheaply as possible is important as is ensuring resale value in case we need to move on from them relatively quickly. But these also need to be players who we would be comfortable playing a decent chunk of minutes if Tino or Hall got injured.

Almost nobody has been linked in these positions, and I’d encourage the club to be opportunistic and not tied to one fixed approach here, we should even be considering loans to bridge the gap if need be. Free transfers like Kyle Walker-Peters might make sense if the wage demands are reasonable. My first choice here earlier in the season was Josh Achaempong, but he signed a new deal at Chelsea.

Summary

So I am predicting a busy summer for Newcastle United.

Ideally, we would sign a first choice goalkeeper, centre back, and fill out the squad with two new full backs (with a reserve keeper also a possibility).

Tomorrow (Thursday 1 May) I will bring you part 2 of my thoughts on Newcastle United summer planning, that will cover midfielders, wingers and strikers.