Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest: Villa can at least win corner battle | OneFootball

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Marco Asensio has been a big hit since joining Aston Villa

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest have been outstanding this season, and Kevin Hatchard believes Villa can have the upper hand when they meet on Saturday...

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Aston Villa v Nottingham ForestSaturday 05 April, 17:30

Villa setting up glorious end to the season

Aston Villa already set the bar pretty high for themselves last season, as they qualified for the Champions League, but Unai Emery and his players have outdone themselves this term. A Champions League quarter-final against Emery's old club PSG is on the horizon, the Villains have booked an FA Cup semi-final against Crystal Palace at Wembley, and Wednesday's 3-0 win at Brighton moved the West Midlands giants to within two points of the Champions League spots.

A January injection of quality and experience has given Villa a huge mid-season boost. Marcus Rashford scored twice in the weekend's FA Cup win at Preston, and then scored a breakaway goal at the Amex to give Villa a vital opener. Although Rashford has made it clear he's at Villa Park for a good time and not a long time, both parties are getting what they want out of the arrangement.

Marco Asensio and Donyell Malen both netted at Brighton too, and have points to prove. Asensio won everything there was to win with Real Madrid, but found himself a bit-part player at PSG, while Malen wasn't the first XI lock at Borussia Dortmund that many thought the Dutchman would become.

Amidst all of this talent, Emery is the true star. Villa have allowed him to tailor everything at the club to his liking, and they are being rewarded. They have won their last six games in all competitions, and they have turned Villa Park into a fortress, with 10 wins from the last 14 home matches in all competitions.

Villa have pretty much a clean bill of health, with midfielder Ross Barkley the only fitness doubt. Rashford may play on the left to accommodate the deployment of Ollie Watkins through the middle, while Pau Torres is likely to start again at centre-back after his recent return from injury.

Forest closing in on stunning achievement

Like Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest are former English champions and European champions, and like Aston Villa they are in the mix to win the FA Cup and to finish in the Premier League's top five. While Unai Emery has steered Villa to success with superb coaching, Nuno Espirito Santo has also had a huge influence on his players, albeit with significantly different tactics.

Forest have consistently shown they can defend diligently, and then pose a threat with their speed and quality in transition. Tuesday's win over Manchester United at the City Ground was a classic example - Forest were happy to cede possession and territory, and won the game with a stunning solo run on the break from Anthony Elanga.

The East Midlands club have racked up 13 Premier League clean sheets this term, they have conceded just 35 top-flight goals and they have been beaten in just seven of their 30 league matches. They remain the only team to have beaten champions-elect Liverpool in the league this season.

Top scorer Chris Wood is still struggling with a hip injury, while winger Callum Hudson-Odoi is also a doubt. Influential full-back Ola Aina is likely to miss out after injuring a calf against Manchester United.

Corners the key to Bet Builder

It might seem a touch conservative, but I think there's a very gettable Bet Builder opportunity here at 9/10 on the Sportsbook.

We can back Villa/Draw Double Chance - while Forest have done well against the lesser lights this term, they've generally found it more difficult on their travels against top sides, with the win at Anfield the clear exception. Forest have actually lost three of their last four on the road in the league, they were beaten handily at Arsenal and Manchester City and they were held to draws at Chelsea and Brighton. They could also be without Aina, Wood and Hudson-Odoi.

The other two bets are to do with corners. Because they defend deep, Forest give away a lot of corners, and their average of 6.3 conceded per game is the highest in the league. Villa win 6.2 on average, conceding just 4.2, so I'll back Villa in the Corner Match Bet, and I'll back them to win Over 4.5 Corners.

Magic Marco can make his mark

Marco Asensio has already delivered eight goals and an assist for Villa in all competitions, which is more goal contributions already than he managed at PSG this season. Keep an eye on the team news, and if he starts, back Asensio to score or assist at 5/4. He scored in midweek as a sub, and is in line to return to the XI here, and Emery rotates ahead of the Champions League clash with PSG.

Now read Kev's Bundesliga preview here!

Recommended bets

Back Villa/Draw, Villa Corner Match Bet and Over 4.5 Villa Corners @ 9/10

Back Marco Asensio to score or assist @ 5/4

Ste Tudor's Build Up Tips:

Back Rashford to have more shots than Elanga

After being deployed up top against Brighton midweek – and duly scoring - Marcus Rashford is expected to be switched back to his preferred left flank at the weekend, allowing Olie Watkins to return refreshed.

This will put him on the same side as Forest’s flying winger Anthony Elanga which leads us to an intriguing Build Up bet.

Before we get into it though, a quick caveat. Only Rashford’s time at Aston Villa has been assessed here. That’s because the player looks transformed since temporarily leaving Old Trafford, in many ways back to his best. We should – and can - only judge him on this.

Which doesn’t give us much to go off but what there is greatly impresses.

The 27-year-old has taken on a shot every 29 minutes in the league and if that itself is noteworthy we should also acknowledge his initial period spent coming off the bench. It’s hard to sync with the rhythm of a game and make an impact but Rashford has done that several times over.

On his debut, he fired four efforts after being introduced at half-time.

Away from the league there are fives and sixes to consider, against Preston and Cardiff respectively in the cup. But even just sticking to his top-flight output, the England international’s numbers are big.

As for Elanga, he only took on one shot versus Manchester United midweek but what a shot it was, concluding a direct 70-yard sprint through the heart of the opposition defence. In his previous outing too, the wide-man was the difference-maker, scoring twice at Portman Road.

He then – like his team – is in scintillating form.

Yet a look at his figures reveals that Elanga is something of a Steady Eddie when it comes to shot-taking. It’s all ones and twos which amounts to admirable consistency, but only that.